Silver: Dubious Speculation
Benjamin Cowen examines silver’s sharp decline, arguing that it reflects a consolidation after a parabolic advance and pressure from rising Treasury yields and the dollar. He expects the next few weeks or months to be an important window for a potential low, but says the timing is uncertain; he remains bullish over a longer horizon while anticipating an extended base before a possible renewed advance.
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Cowen argues that silver’s decline is primarily a digestion phase after a parabolic advance, which can lead to about a year of consolidation even within a larger bull market.
He says rising 10-year Treasury yields and a rising dollar are weighing on silver, and expects pressure to continue as yields climb.
Cowen expects silver’s weakness to reach a possible crescendo over the next few weeks, while acknowledging that it could persist longer and that the timing is uncertain.
He points to past midterm-year patterns in which silver formed a low between September and November, then began to recover the following year.
Silver’s Midterm-Year Setup
Cowen introduces silver’s expected cooloff and explains how rising Treasury yields and the dollar have weighed on the metal, drawing on prior midterm-year patterns.
Yields and Silver Lows
Cowen expects silver could find a low before or around a peak in long-term yields, while emphasizing that the timing of a yield reversal is uncertain.
Parabolic Rally Consolidation
He argues silver’s decline is primarily a consolidation after a parabolic advance, comparing the setup with 1974 and weighing whether prices could revisit earlier highs.
Silver’s Potential Low Window
With yields still rising, Cowen sees the next few weeks as a key test for silver and says the timing could extend, especially if inflation pressures persist.
Silver and Bitcoin Cycles
Cowen compares silver’s recent lows and three-year gains with Bitcoin’s, then notes that historical midterm-year weakness has often given way to a recovery the following year.
Silver’s Longer-Term Base
Cowen concludes that silver may need an extended base even after a low forms, but remains bullish over the longer term and sees potential for another advance later in the decade.
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