The Desperation Phase: When Markets Stop Believing Headlines

Shin argues that oil headlines are losing their ability to sustain price moves: he says the 3.6 million barrels in the Putin-Trump agreement amount to about one day of U.S. consumption and 1.3 days of global diesel use, while repeated headlines and quick jobs-data revisions shorten the time before markets recognize underlying conditions. He points to USO returning to its level at the start of the Iran war and WTI staying above $90 as evidence of oil resisting the news flow.

Shin is preparing for a possible further rise in oil, but describes WTI’s falling wedge as prone to false moves and says a near-term move toward its bottom would not surprise him. He also cites Kpler data showing oil returned to its prewar level before declining substantially, so his outlook is a forecast rather than a one-way price call.

Shin reports that 71% of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production and nearly 60% of gas production are offline, with the duration dependent on the storm’s path and any damage. Separately, he says his analysis points to a possible further rise in oil and cautions that WTI could still move toward the bottom of its wedge in the near term.

Shin interprets Iran’s past restraint from attacking ships as linked to under-the-table payments from Gulf states, and argues that U.S. sanctions threats could close that channel and lead Iran to resume attacks; he presents this as his interpretation, not a confirmed account. The U.S. Treasury is also warning shippers not to pay Hormuz tolls, including payments disguised as charity.

Shin says C-17 transports and refueling tankers moving into the Middle East signal a buildup of military capability, though they do not establish that an attack will occur. He argues that this buildup has raised the risk of a U.S. strike on Iran before the November elections and that Iran might consider striking first, creating a possible cycle of preemption.