Gold: The Next Big Move
Benjamin Cowen argues that gold remains in a broader bull market despite its 2026 pullback and expects the metal's ultimate top to remain ahead. He concludes that a brief dollar resurgence could keep gold weak for two to four weeks, followed by a likely higher low and renewed strength into year-end, while acknowledging that a lower low remains possible.
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Benjamin Cowen says gold is in a second consolidation period in 2026, but his base case remains that the metal's ultimate top is still ahead.
Cowen argues that a roughly 30% gold decline does not necessarily end the bull market, citing historical drawdowns of about 33% during the 2008 crisis and almost 50% in the 1970s.
The speaker expects gold to form a higher low around mid-September to mid-October, although he leaves room for a lower low similar to the patterns seen in 2018 and 2022.
Cowen identifies a potential short-term U.S. dollar rebound as the likely cause of further gold weakness, with market pricing for one or two rate hikes potentially supporting the dollar.
Gold Bull Market Thesis
Cowen reviews gold’s post-2016 advances and argues that the broader bull market remains intact, supported by geopolitical uncertainty, central-bank purchases, and likely monetary expansion.
Midterm Gold Seasonality
Cowen compares 2026 with historical midterm-year patterns, highlighting summer lows, a subsequent rally, and the possibility of a late-September or early-October retest.
Gold Breakout Invalidation
Cowen rejects the idea that January marked gold’s secular top but says he would reconsider if the metal fails to reach new all-time highs by roughly mid-2027.
Dollar-Driven Gold Pullback
Cowen expects a brief dollar resurgence and two to four weeks of gold weakness, followed by a likely higher low and renewed strength into year-end, while allowing for a lower low.
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