PodcastCommodity CultureJohn Feneck

I'm Buying These Gold & Silver Stocks 'Hand Over Fist': John Feneck

John Feneck discusses concentrated battery supply, Cambodia's push for energy independence, and the rate and market backdrop for commodities. He highlights strong recent returns in gold-mining stocks but notes the sector's small share of the investable universe, and points to individual mining and oil-stock considerations. His outlook includes potential investor rotation toward gold and silver equities, defined gold support levels, a more disciplined silver entry, and concern about the market effects of much higher rates.

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Key Takeaways

Feneck links the case for North American battery supply to China’s 98% share of the LFP battery market, while saying Cambodia supports Anchor’s project under a 30-year lease because the country wants an energy source of its own. Both points center on reducing dependence on outside suppliers.

Feneck says the probability of a December 9 Fed hike rose to 70%, while he considers an October hike off the table and a 25-basis-point December move likely, pending October data. He also notes that the 10-year Treasury yield rose from about 3.96% to 5.28% despite what he describes as only one Fed hike in three years, and forecasts a much sharper market reaction if rates reach 6.5%–7%.

Feneck says GDX and GDXJ returned 155% and roughly 175% in 2024, yet gold-mining stocks represented only 0.1% of the investable universe; he argues that this small footprint has limited the sector’s notoriety and that interest could grow if investors rotate away from tech and risk assets. He also points to the months it took the funds to rally after the 2008 crisis as a reason for patience with investment timing.

GEO-POLITICS

Battery Supply — John Feneck says the U.S. government set aside its tungsten work to address batteries first, and that China accounts for 98% of the LFP battery market. He sees that concentration as a reason North American battery supply matters.

“In fact, I called the US government last week. They've actually tabled their tungsten work to talk about batteries first. They're writing a white paper on batteries before tungsten…”—

ECONOMY

December Hike Odds — John Feneck says the probability of a Fed rate hike fell from 71% at the end of September to about 20%, while the probability of a December 9 hike rose from 40% to 70%. He thinks an October hike is off the table and says a 25-basis-point December hike looks likely, while noting that October data are still ahead.

“We are sitting here early October. We have CPI and a few other metrics to contend with in October, prefed October 28th…”—

MARKETS

Treasury Yields — Feneck says the 10-year Treasury yield rose from about 3.96% on March 1 to 5.28%, a move he describes as 130 basis points. He contrasts that rise with what he says was just one Fed hike in three years.

“And as you can see, back in March 1st where you see the really bad, you know, part of the chart, that was right around 3.99 or so, right? Yeah…”—

Mining Returns — Feneck cites 2024 returns of 155% for GDX and roughly 175% for GDXJ, while saying the sector represented 0.1% of the investable universe. He argues its small size has limited its notoriety despite strong performance.

“If you held GDX last year, you made 155% from Jan 1 to December 31st. That is amazing return, right? GDXJ was better. It was up around 175%…”—

Mining Stock Timing — Feneck says GDX and GDXJ took months to gain momentum after the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis. He urges investors to be patient rather than expect an investment thesis to play out on their preferred schedule.

“Like this whole malaise started with Lehman Brothers, let's call it summer of08, right?…”—

FORECASTS

Rate Panic Thresholds — Feneck predicts that rates reaching 6.5% would cause people to start freaking out, with 7% bringing a more severe reaction and potentially mass chaos in financial markets. He argues that Bessent, Trump, and the Fed would not want that scenario because they could not control it.

“When you get to 6 and a half% people are going to start freaking out and then at 7% they really freak out and I know that Bessant and Trump…”—

Gold-Silver Rotation — Feneck argues that gold and silver equities could attract more interest if investors rotate away from tech and other risk assets. He says the sector's small size has limited its notoriety despite strong performance.

“Like I don't know another sector that was up 150 to 200%. I'm sure there could be one, but like let's just say we're top five, right?…”—

Coming Up

Feneck rejects claims that U.S. bond markets are stable, citing sharply higher Treasury yields and warning that rates near 6–7% could trigger severe financial-market turmoil.

Debt Crisis for the US?

Feneck uses a core-and-spoke strategy: broad mining ETFs anchor portfolios while individual stocks can be traded after sharp rallies, rather than held without regard to volatility.

Mining Stocks: Hold or Trade?

Feneck argues rising yields do not negate gold’s strong fundamental backdrop, points to the sector’s exceptional recent returns, and says broader investor rotation could lift precious-metals equities.

Rising Yields and Precious Metals

Feneck sees gold support around $3,900–$4,000 and resistance near $4,400–$4,600, while favoring gold equities; for silver, he would wait for a disciplined entry near $54–$55.

Gold and Silver Price Forecast

Feneck reviews mining picks including BlackRock Silver, Silver47, NexGold, Triumph Gold, and others, highlighting project economics, jurisdictions, share structures, and possible catalysts.

Top Mining Stock Picks

Feneck says market timing depends on shifting economic and geopolitical developments, including the Fed outlook, Treasury yields, and unresolved conflicts that keep investors facing uncertainty.

Broad Market Has to Roll Over

Feneck sees potential in tightly held oil companies, highlighting Blue Energies’ Liberian acreage and Anchor’s Cambodian lease as ways to gain exposure to possible energy demand and supply shifts.

Time to Buy Oil Stocks?

Feneck directs listeners to Top Shelf Partners and Fenick Consulting for his conferences, services, and performance information, while the host closes with sponsor and show announcements.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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