Gold: Seeking a Low
Benjamin Cowen examines whether gold's summer decline represents a completed reset or whether the metal could establish a lower low later in the year. He concludes that the seasonal pattern, historical comparisons with 1974, and a possible future dollar rally support a low forming by mid-October, with a higher low more likely than a decisive end to the broader gold bull market.
Preview · 3 more points in the app
Read the Full SummaryKey Points
Gold's current seasonal pattern broadly matches the average performance of gold during midterm years since the 1970s, when prices typically decline into the summer and bottom around July 6.
Cowen says gold's decline has brought it close to the bull market support band, which consists of the 20-month SMA and the 21-month EMA.
Cowen identifies 1974 as a potentially relevant comparison: gold fell nearly 30%, bottomed in the summer, and then rallied about 50% before year-end.
Cowen expects gold to complete its low between the present and mid-October, and he is in the camp that the formation will be a higher low.
Gold’s Seasonal Reset
Cowen frames 2026 as a gold reset year, noting that the summer decline and July low broadly match historical midterm-year seasonality despite unusually high volatility.
1974 Gold Comparison
The 1974 pattern shows a summer low, September higher low, and subsequent rally, giving Cowen reason to favor a comparable higher-low structure over an inevitable new low.
Higher Low Versus Breakdown
Cowen argues that gold’s roughly 30% decline is historically normal and expects a low between now and mid-October, while allowing that a lower low remains possible.
Dollar Rally Pressure
Cowen attributes gold’s current weakness to expectations for a future dollar rally, potentially driven by inflation and Federal Reserve rate increases that markets may already be pricing in.
Gold Low Outlook
Cowen concludes that gold likely reaches its low by mid-October, probably as a higher low, and says even a lower low would not invalidate his broader bullish thesis.
Related Episodes
Important Disclaimers
Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.
AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.
No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.
Our Commentary · Request Removal