PodcastDavid Lin ReportGary Wagner

Gold's Next Crash? ‘Much Lower Prices’ Below THIS Level | Gary Wagner

Wagner sees gold’s technical picture as deeply corrective but potentially constructive if support around $4,000 holds and the December contract recovers above about $4,175. He says higher rates could add pressure, while inflation may support gold if it does not prompt an aggressive Fed response. Silver remains vulnerable near its support level, though Wagner expects any further decline to be less severe than the late-August selloff.

GoldSilverTechnical Analysis

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Key Takeaways

Wagner describes a sharp gold rally—from about $4,130 to $4,300 on August 5, followed by an approximately $800 advance to $4,752—then a pullback from a $5,500 record high. After rebounding to about $4,755 and falling to roughly $4,100, gold formed what he calls its first higher low since the roughly $4,000 low around the end of June; he also points to a small rebound from $4,350 to about $4,550 after an oversold reading.

Wagner sees roughly $4,000–$4,200, especially around $4,000, as major support; he says a break below $4,000 could invalidate the bullish-correction view and lead to substantially lower prices, though he personally does not expect that break. He needs December gold above about $4,175 to regain bullish sentiment, and says that if the current area holds, gold could potentially reach a new high by the first or second quarter of next year.

Wagner says higher rates pressure non-yielding gold, while inflation can support it if it does not prompt an aggressive Fed response. He links oil around $90 per barrel and inflation concerns to rate-hike risk, noting FedWatch probabilities of about 19%–20% for a near-term hike and about 90% for at least one hike by December; he says two hikes could add downside pressure.

MARKETS

Rates Pressure Gold — Wagner says higher interest rates pressure gold, a non-yielding asset with an inverse relationship to rates. He also notes that the Fed’s September minutes indicated an expectation of another rate hike by year-end.

“Gold is a non yielding asset. it doesn't perform or gain based on interest rates. So there's an inverse relationship…”—

August Rally — Wagner describes gold rising from about $4,130 to $4,300 in one day on August 5, then rallying approximately $800 to end the last week of August at $4,752.

“And from there we had a huge break that occurred on the 5th of August. That was a tremendous move from about $4,130 up to $4,300 in a single day…”—

Oil and Inflation — Wagner links elevated oil prices and inflation concerns to the prospect of Fed rate hikes. Oil had eased that week but remained around $90 per barrel, an extended level not seen for a while.

“Although it's been down this week, it's still at an extended level that we haven't seen in a while. And that's with crude oil at the $90 per barrel area.”—

FORECASTS

Breakout Threshold — Wagner says gold’s correction has exceeded 78%, which he considers acceptable but extremely deep. He needs the most active December contract to break back above about $4,175 before he can regain bullish sentiment; if it does, he believes another move higher could follow.

“And that's what we want to look at. So my sense is that even though it's broken below 78%…”—

Rate Hike Risk — Wagner says markets have largely factored in one quarter-point rate hike, but two hikes this year could change the outlook and add downside pressure to gold. He cites FedWatch probabilities of about 19%–20% for a near-term hike and about 90% for at least one hike by December.

“I think about a 19 to 20% probability and about a 90% of at least one rate hike by December. both figures according to the Fed watch tool.”—

Inflation Tradeoff — Wagner says inflation can provide a bullish tailwind for gold, while rate hikes work in the opposite direction. In his view, gold can maintain certain levels if inflation rises without expectations of an aggressive Fed hiking response.

“And so that's telling me that gold is looking at not only the Federal Reserve, but how inflation is going to impact the environment because realize that as inflation goes…”—

Intro.

Wagner sees a possible support base forming above $4,100, but says gold remains in a defined downtrend; a sustained recovery could set up a bullish wave phase.

Is Gold Showing Bullish Signs?

Wagner reviews December gold’s rally and retracement, identifying a close above roughly $4,175 as the level needed to restore bullish momentum.

Gold's Key Support and Resistance

Wagner says rising interest rates pressure non-yielding gold, while hawkish Fed expectations and elevated oil prices add to the risk of further rate hikes.

How Rising Yields Affect Gold

Wagner explains that oil-driven inflation may support gold, but Fed rate hikes and rising real yields could limit its upside.

Inflation, Oil and Fed Rate Hikes

Wagner says oil’s inflationary effects can support gold, but a Fed response through higher rates may outweigh that support; any oil relief after a war’s end could arrive slowly.

How Much Further Could Gold Fall?

Wagner identifies $4,000 as major technical support and warns that a sustained break could undermine the bullish correction thesis and expose gold to lower prices.

What If the Iran War Ends?

Wagner says holding support could preserve a higher low and allow gold to resume an upward motive phase, potentially reaching new highs within six to eight months.

Gold's $4,000 Danger Zone

Wagner sees silver’s $57.50 area as important support; its downtrend is weakening, though he says further declines remain possible and near-term bullish signals are limited.

Could Gold Reach New Highs?

Wagner favors gold over silver for trading precious metals, noting gold has recently outperformed silver on both advances and declines.

Silver's Next Move

The host thanks Wagner and asks where viewers can follow him; Wagner shares his website and a discount offer for his premium service.

Gold vs. Silver: Which Is Better?

Wagner gives his website and a promotional code for the premium service, and the host closes by directing viewers to the link and asking them to like and subscribe.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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