PodcastMaggie LakeDale Pinkert

Are Bond Yields About to Reverse? with Dale Pinkert | Talking Markets

Dale Pinkert sees a possible rate hike in the Fed minutes but stresses that they are backward-looking and that policy remains data-dependent. He weighs the appeal of roughly 5% yields against gold and outlines selective trading opportunities across equities, bonds, and commodities. His forecasts include a possible dollar peak near 103, a silver bottom only after capitulation, and an S&P 500 pullback toward 7,000 before another advance.

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Key Takeaways

The speakers say two record highs have made the equity rally difficult to fade, while Pinkert still expects the S&P 500 could reset to around 7,000 before another melt-up. He notes that selective shorts such as banks have held up, so his forecast does not rule out opportunities on both sides of the market.

Pinkert sees a possible TLT relief rally, but not the start of a new bull market, and describes a scenario where equities fall even as yields decline if investors fear economic weakness or a Fed policy error. He also cautions that the Fed minutes are backward-looking: officials considered a hike possible but gave no year-end timing and remain data-dependent.

Pinkert says roughly 5% yields make interest-bearing assets more attractive to him than non-interest-bearing gold, while suggesting yields may help explain why gold buyers have not capitulated. For silver, he wants to see capitulation—including a down day of three or more and potentially prices below 50—before calling a bottom.

ECONOMY

Fed Rate Outlook — Dale Pinkert says the Fed minutes indicated officials viewed a rate hike as possible, but did not specify when one might occur by year-end. He cautions that the minutes are backward-looking and describes the Fed as data-dependent.

“We've got a Fed meeting this month. Fed minutes came out. They're they're backward-looking anyway…”—

MARKETS

Gold Yield Appeal — Dale Pinkert says a roughly 5% yield makes interest-bearing assets more attractive to him than non-interest-bearing gold. He suggests available yields may be one reason gold buyers have not capitulated.

“It could be. I'd rather hear I'd rather have a yield than own a non-interest bearing instrument to be a buyer. That's a talk I want to hear. Okay. Okay…”—

Equity Rally — The speakers say the equity market had hit two records, making it difficult to stay bearish amid its persistent rally. Dale Pinkert notes that some selective short positions, including banks, had not been overrun.

“you know bubblelike condition we're seeing and yet it's been hard to be a bear in this equity market right that it's just relentlessly going up we just hit two…”—

Longs In Downtrends — Dale Pinkert argues that long opportunities can arise even within a major downtrend. Traders, he says, need not trade only one side of the market.

“So, even within a major, right, even within a major downtrend, there are long opportunities you know, where you don't just have to trade one side of the market that…”—

FORECASTS

Dollar Near 103 — Dale Pinkert says the dollar is near his 103 target, which could mark a peak, though other counts could take it higher. A move back below the double top could start a correction, he says, and this is not a time to chase the dollar.

“I've been talking about 103 all year and we've gotten to 10250 50. Here we are. So there there could there could be some more left…”—

Silver Capitulation — Dale Pinkert wants to see capitulation in silver, rather than repeated attempts to buy the dip, before calling a bottom. He is looking for a down day of three or more and says the pessimism he seeks may not arrive until prices fall below 50.

“This is a 4hour chart and you could see how they came in, you know, near the lows and posted a reversal day…”—

TLT Relief Rally — Dale Pinkert says TLT is not a short at current levels and expects a relief rally, but distinguishes that view from the start of a new bull market. He points to divergence as context for the near-term bond-price outlook.

“I talked about the boon last week and look how good it looks. I mean it turned last week Europe turned ahead of us and it still looks okay…”—

Dollar Peak Outlook

Pinkert sees the dollar nearing his 103 target and says it is too late to chase, while euro and precious-metal traders should wait for stronger reversal evidence.

Gold, Silver, And Yields

Pinkert prefers earning roughly 5% in interest-bearing assets to holding gold, expects gold to test its low, and says silver needs capitulation before he would call a bottom.

Bond Yield Reversal

Pinkert sees topping signals in yields and a possible bond relief rally, while emphasizing that this is not yet evidence of a lasting bull market.

Fed Minutes And JGBs

The speakers note that Fed minutes are backward-looking and policy remains data-dependent; Pinkert reads divergence in Japanese yields as a possible false breakout with global implications.

S&P 500 Pullback Risk

Pinkert cautions against complacency in equities, sees vulnerability after the recent highs, and expects a pullback toward 7,000 before a possible renewed advance.

Natural Gas And Crypto

Pinkert favors natural gas over crude despite its volatility, while warning that Ethereum must hold support and Bitcoin still needs to clear resistance to turn bullish.

Copper And Data Centers

Pinkert is bearish on copper and sees data-center stocks as technically vulnerable, advising against buying them until stronger price signals appear.

Energy Stocks And Grains

Pinkert likes Constellation Energy but would not chase its gap higher, and expects better entry prices in corn and wheat while outlining levels to watch.

Dollar And Market Signals

Pinkert says a dollar reversal could influence metals, yields, and the S&P 500, and identifies the weekly close as an important clue for equity direction.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

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