PodcastAdam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®Andy Schectman

We're Entering The Strongest Seasonal Time Of Year For Gold & Silver | Andy Schectman

Schectman argues that countries and central banks are reducing reliance on the dollar, Treasuries, and foreign gold custody, while alternative settlement systems and stablecoins could reshape demand for short-term government debt. He links monetary expansion, weak Treasury demand, employment-data revisions, energy costs, and delayed economic effects to broader financial-system risks. His market outlook favors gold as a store of purchasing power but warns that seasonal equity weakness, leverage, election uncertainty, and rising precious-metals premiums could make the year-end unsettled.

GoldSilverPrecious MetalsCurrenciesGovernment DebtMonetary Policy

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Key Takeaways

Schectman presents BRICS-plus oil settlement activity, which he says represents roughly 40% of global crude-oil exports, alongside gold repatriation by countries including Germany, India, and Turkey as evidence of efforts to reduce reliance on dollar reserves, Treasuries, and foreign custodians. He also cites the ECB holding more gold than dollars in its reserves as part of this diversification trend.

Schectman argues that declining trust in custodians and documented misconduct—highlighting JPMorgan's $920 million Justice Department fine—support demands for greater transparency around gold ownership and storage. He says a credible Fort Knox audit would need to cover four U.S. facilities, count numbered bars, and reconcile them with records; cameras could help initially but would not replace a full audit.

The discussion contrasts tokenized gold's potential to facilitate collateralized lending and cross-border transfers with its loss of privacy, reduced direct possession, and dependence on the custodian holding the metal. That custody tradeoff mirrors the broader preference Schectman describes for physical possession over access to LBMA and COMEX liquidity.

Schectman argues that money-supply expansion, rather than only CPI, is the relevant inflation mechanism and links rising M2 to weak Treasury demand while roughly $10 trillion of Treasury debt faces refinancing, repayment, or rollover within 12 months. He says newly created money can reach asset markets first through a Cantillon effect, bidding up equities, real estate, gold, silver, and Bitcoin before consumer-price effects appear.

Schectman questions the reliability of apparently strong labor data, citing a 177,000 downward revision to June job openings, a third consecutive monthly revision, and downward revisions in 38 of the prior 43 months. He pairs that concern with the warning that higher bond yields can slow a highly leveraged global economy with a delay, while higher oil prices may take one or two quarters to create trade problems.

GEO-POLITICS

BRICS Oil Settlement — Schectman points to an oil trade between the UAE and India settled without the dollar as evidence that countries are developing alternative payment and settlement systems. He says BRICS-plus members account for roughly 40% of global crude-oil exports and are gradually reducing dollar reserves and Treasury holdings.

“Central banks of the UAE and the new development bank and the Russian central bank that the unit settlement currency was used to settle an oil trade between UAE and…”—

Stablecoin Policy — Schectman says the Genius Act would route global dollar transactions through stablecoins backed primarily by Treasury securities with maturities of 93 days or less. He argues this could create synthetic demand for short-term Treasuries and constrain the Federal Reserve's control over overnight interest rates; these are his views and projections, not settled facts.

“And it says anytime money moves across the globe, if it's in US dollars, it will move via stable coin. Instant settlement like you're sending Venmo or Zel.”—

Gold Repatriation — Schectman interprets gold repatriation by countries including Germany, Austria, Poland, Hungary, Turkey, France, and India as evidence of concern about counterparty risk. He says it also reflects a preference for direct physical possession over foreign custody and liquidity.

“Thousand%. You've had Norway, the Bundes Bank, Germany, the Dutch, the Austria Poland Hungary Turkey France, India brought their go most of their gold back from the Bank of England…”—

TECHNOLOGY

Tokenized Gold — Tokenized gold could support collateralized lending and cross-border transfers. However, it would reduce privacy and direct possession while creating reliance on the custodian holding the physical metal.

“The tokenization of it really allows for collateralization…”—

ECONOMY

Collectibles Tax — Schectman says short-term gains on gold and silver are taxed at ordinary income-tax rates. Holdings of at least one year are treated as collectibles subject to a 28% federal rate. He advises viewers to confirm the treatment with an accountant.

“This 28% that we were talking about, someone's asking, is there a long-term and a short-term collectible tax? No. No. That's my whole point. There is no long-term…”—

Money-Supply Inflation — Schectman distinguishes CPI from his preferred definition of inflation: expansion of the money supply. He links rising M2 with weak Treasury demand and roughly $10 trillion of Treasury debt requiring refinancing, repayment, or rollover over the next 12 months.

“CPI isn't inflation. Inflation is inflating the money supply. M2 is going through the roof. So all of these things are converging…”—

Employment Revisions — Schectman argues that apparently strong labor data may be unreliable. Job openings were revised down by 177,000 for June, marking a third straight monthly revision, and had been revised lower in 38 of the previous 43 months. He expects another downward revision as a personal betting-style judgment.

“So they say that the because of the labor numbers and the hot the hot data that hot jobs report push the odds of a rate hike to 58%…”—

MARKETS

Gold Purchasing Power — Schectman argues that higher energy prices and inflation do not necessarily make gold bearish, even if they limit the Fed's ability to cut rates. He cites a decline in average income's purchasing power from 78 ounces of gold in 1990 to 19 ounces today as evidence of monetary debasement.

“I think that's kind of the crazy thing that we see right now…”—

Reserve Diversification — Schectman cites a report that the ECB holds more gold than dollars in its reserves. He presents gold repatriation and diversification by several countries as evidence of concern about dollar and Treasury-market risk.

“Yeah…”—

Diesel Vulnerability — Schectman describes the financial system as fragile because diesel costs affect freight, farming, and construction. He says diesel was nearly $6 per gallon and the strategic reserve was at its lowest level in 40 years, creating the potential for a delayed fuel shock.

“The whole thing is it's fragile is the way that I would look at it. The whole system is very fragile right now…”—

FORECASTS

Stablecoin Gold Demand — Schectman speculates that interest earned by Treasury-backed stablecoin issuers could be invested in gold, potentially pushing gold higher and weakening the dollar relative to gold. He explicitly says this is his guess and that he has no proof.

“Not only to suppress interest rates on the front end synthetically, but also if I had to guess, it would be to put that interest like Tether is doing into…”—

Seasonal Market Risk — Schectman says market conditions typically start to change around Labor Day and notes that September has historically been the worst month for stock-market equities. He views concentrated equity holdings, margin debt, option exposure, and midterm-election uncertainty as reasons not to expect a calm and orderly year-end.

“You get back into the Labor Day time and things typically start to take off…”—

Will gold and silver’s fall seasonality repeat this year?

Andy expects fall volatility to support precious metals but warns that concentrated equity, margin, and options exposure could make the period through midterm elections unusually unstable.

Do midterm elections help or hurt precious metals?

Midterm elections add uncertainty, while September's historically weak equity performance and potential political narrative management could influence gold and silver sentiment.

Why “the Fed can’t cut” shouldn’t mean gold sells off

Andy rejects the idea that higher energy prices and fewer expected Fed cuts necessarily hurt gold, arguing that monetary expansion matters more than short-term rate expectations.

Money-supply inflation, weak Treasury demand, and the $10T rollover

He links rising M2, weak Treasury demand, and roughly $10 trillion in refinancing needs to a fragile debt market and a structural case for gold.

Warsh, Jackson Hole, and the hot jobs-report narrative

The hot jobs report may give Kevin Warsh room to remain hawkish, but Andy questions whether employment data accurately reflects underlying economic conditions.

BLS revisions: job openings cut in 38 of the last 43 months

Andy highlights that job openings have been revised lower in 38 of the last 43 months, undermining confidence in headline BLS strength and its market impact.

The debasement trade vs. short-term market noise

Andy and Adam distinguish long-term purchasing-power debasement from temporary market noise, arguing that investors should own real assets rather than remain dollar-heavy.

ECB now holds more gold than dollars

The ECB reportedly holding more gold than dollars illustrates how even major allied institutions are shifting reserve preferences away from the dollar.

Diesel, crack spreads, and a 40-year-low SPR

Record diesel prices and a depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve threaten freight, farming, and construction, with energy costs likely to propagate through the economy.

Lag effects from bond yields, oil, and food supply

Higher bond yields, oil prices, and constrained food supplies may produce delayed economic damage because leverage and supply disruptions take time to reach markets.

The Cantillon effect and “management of perception”

Andy applies the Cantillon effect to monetary expansion, arguing that early recipients of new money acquire assets before inflation reaches everyone else.

Norway’s wealth fund selling U.S. Treasuries

Norway's wealth fund plans to reduce Treasury holdings, reinforcing Andy's view that foreign investors are reassessing U.S. debt after historically poor returns.

What an average income buys in gold: 78 oz in 1990 vs. 19 oz today

The comparison between average income and gold ownership shows purchasing power falling from 78 ounces in 1990 to only 19 ounces today.

Gold repatriation as an indictment of counterparty risk

Gold repatriation by European and other governments signals concern about counterparty risk and declining confidence in foreign custody arrangements.

BRICS payment rails and a dollar-free oil settlement

Alternative BRICS-linked settlement rails, including a reported oil transaction avoiding dollars, show countries gradually reducing dependence on dollar clearing without immediately replacing the dollar.

U.S. stablecoins, the Genius Act, and tokenized gold

U.S. stablecoins and tokenized gold could reshape global dollar movement, collateral use, cross-border settlement, and the visibility and custody of precious metals.

How T-bill-backed stablecoins could pin the front end of the curve

The Genius Act would require dollar stablecoins to rely heavily on short-term Treasuries, potentially creating enormous synthetic demand for Treasury bills.

Tether, gold buying, and a possible path to devalue the dollar

T-bill-backed stablecoins could pin short-term rates near the floor and weaken the Federal Reserve's influence over overnight lending conditions.

Why a private stablecoin instead of a U.S. CBDC?

Andy speculates that Tether's cooperation with U.S. authorities and large gold purchases could support a managed dollar devaluation against gold.

Tokenized gold: convenience, visibility, and custody risk

A private stablecoin may function like a Treasury-linked CBDC while avoiding the political resistance associated with a direct Federal Reserve digital currency.

Fort Knox and Rand Paul’s limited visit

Tokenized gold offers portability, interoperability, lending, and cross-border convenience, but sacrifices privacy and introduces third-party custody and redemption risk.

State legal tender, the 28% collectible tax, and Form 8300

Andy argues that Brinks will likely provide neutral custody and reconcile physical holdings with tokenized ledgers rather than issue the tokens itself.

The push to end the federal collectible tax on gold and silver

Rand Paul's limited Fort Knox visit does not satisfy Andy, who wants a comprehensive audit of gold held across Fort Knox, West Point, Denver, and the New York Fed.

Junk silver premiums and the live Miles Franklin offer

State legal-tender initiatives, collectible-tax reform efforts, reporting rules, and rising junk-silver premiums reflect broader attempts to make precious metals easier to own and transact.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

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