Gold Path for 2026 [Update]
The episode analyzes gold's path through 2026 and argues the current weakness is likely a normal midterm-year consolidation rather than the end of the bull market. The speaker concludes gold remains structurally intact, expects a bottom in the June–October window (often early July), and sees potential for a renewed advance into the pre-election period and beyond.
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Read the Full SummaryKey Points
The speaker defines gold's bull-market support band using the 20-month simple moving average and the 21-month EMA, and notes those averages are the relevant long-term levels to watch.
In prior gold bull markets the price often returns to test the 20-month SMA or 21-month EMA, citing similar behavior in the 2000s and the 1970s.
Measured from the high, gold has corrected about 30% during the recent weakness.
On average across prior midterm years, gold typically bottoms in early July, and the speaker identifies a primary bottoming window of June through October.
Gold Historical Support
The host reviews long-term moving averages and past bull-market behavior, arguing gold commonly revisits the 20‑month/21‑month band during bull runs and that commodities move more slowly than stocks or crypto.
Midterm-Year Bottoming
Using prior midterm-year patterns, the speaker contends gold typically bottoms between June and October (often early July), and that 2026's weakness could be a normal midterm consolidation rather than a terminal top.
Outlook & Takeaways
The presenter expects at least a bounce and potential renewed advance into the pre‑election period, noting dollar dynamics, geopolitical risk, and historical cycles that support a constructive multi‑year view on gold.
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