PodcastKitcoGary Wagner

Gold Back to $5,000? Gary Wagner Charts the Fed, the Dollar and Oil

Gary Wagner’s analysis centers on technical levels and Elliott-wave patterns in gold and silver, alongside the effects of interest rates and the dollar. He sees year-end gold at $4,800–$5,000 and a possible new record high in the first or second quarter of next year, while outlining silver’s support, resistance, and year-end target. He also expects oil to move back above $100, but cautions that the move could be short-lived or unsustainable; separately, the host cites traders’ odds for Warsh holding or hiking rates.

GoldSilverTechnical AnalysisInterest RatesOilCurrencies

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Key Takeaways

Wagner says higher rates weigh on gold because it produces no fixed income, while making bonds more attractive to institutional traders and speculators through their fixed, very low-risk return. He says precious metals could still rise in a bullish scenario if rates are not expected to increase by multiple points.

Wagner says gold buyers treated prices just above $4,100 as a bargain, but the possible two-day bullish engulfing pattern still needs confirmation and would be invalidated by a close below $4,127. His Elliott-wave analysis puts a conditional minimum of $4,860 on a wave-three scenario; he targets about $5,000, sees year-end gold at $4,800–$5,000, and expects a correction afterward.

Wagner describes silver's decline from $120 to $67 and then about $56, identifying $68 as a key level and noting that silver lagged gold in the recent rebound. He says silver would need to clear $61 to reach his $62–$63 year-end forecast, while, if his gold model unfolds, he sees support around $67–$68 and major resistance near $73.

ECONOMY

Rates And Gold — Gary Wagner says the Fed is in a tightening cycle and higher rates dampen gold’s appeal because it produces no fixed income. He says precious metals could still rise in a bullish scenario if rates are not expected to increase by multiple points.

“So unquestionably we are in a tightening cycle in which the fed is less accommodative that brings all of the repercussions of that higher interest rates dampens the allure of…”—

MARKETS

Gold Support — Wagner says traders viewed gold just above $4,100 as a bargain and bought the dip. He describes a possible two-day bullish engulfing pattern that still needs a confirming green candle with a higher low, high, open, and close. A close below $4,127 would invalidate the model.

“But that kind of shifted around September 28th…”—

B-Wave Retracement — Wagner says that in an Elliott-wave correction, the B wave typically retraces 50% to 70% of the first downswing. In a pure zigzag, the subsequent low falls below the low of A.

“The B wave will typically regain anywhere between 50 and 70 percent of the length of the first downswing…”—

Wave Three Rule — Wagner says Elliott-wave rules prohibit wave three from being the shortest impulse wave. It must at least reach the price point implied by the other impulse waves.

“But this golden rule is for wave three…”—

FORECASTS

Gold Outlook — Wagner says gold could finish the year above $5,000 on a technical basis, while cautioning that events could change the outlook. If the market is in a motive phase—specifically, wave three—the count requires at least $4,860; he targets about $5,000 and expects a subsequent correction. He sees year-end gold between $4,800 and $5,000 and expects a new record high in the first or second quarter of next year. Separately, the host reports traders see a 73% chance that Warsh holds and a 27% chance that he hikes again.

“And so what this tells us is that at least on a technical basis. And we know that that's a big caveat to swallow because if events happen, everything rebalances…”—

Silver Levels — If Wagner's gold model unfolds, he says there is a decent probability silver could also rise, with initial support around $67–$68 and major resistance around $73; he says $73 is about as high as he would venture to guess silver could go.

“i think that we'll could see or there's a decent probability i should say that we would see silver also do the same with absolute first level of support coming…”—

Gold Whipsawed $80 After the CPI Shock

The host recaps gold’s sharp post-CPI drop and near-full recovery, while noting silver briefly slipped below the previously identified $56 floor and asking whether the selloff has ended.

The Two-Day Pattern Flashing a Bullish Reversal

Wagner describes gold’s rapid rally and subsequent correction, highlighting repeated support near $4,100 and a two-day bullish engulfing pattern that may signal a reversal.

The One Candle That Confirms the Turn

He explains that the engulfing pattern needs a higher, stronger confirming candle, and says a close below $4,127 would invalidate the bullish setup.

Elliott Wave, and What It Says About Gold Now

Wagner’s Elliott-wave count treats the decline as a complex correction and suggests gold may be entering a new bullish motive phase, while acknowledging that technical assumptions can change.

His Model Puts Gold Back Above $5,000 by Year-End

His model targets gold between $4,800 and $5,000 at year-end, followed by a deeper correction; he expects a possible new record high in the first or second quarter of next year.

Silver’s $56 Floor Held. What’s Next

Wagner says silver’s $56 support held after a brief undercut, but the metal has lagged gold; he identifies $67–$68 as initial support and about $73 as major resistance.

The Gold-Silver Ratio and the Case for Stacking

He places limited emphasis on the gold-silver ratio, favors gold as the definitive precious metal, and says he continues buying silver partly because of its tangible appeal.

A Rising Dollar Is the Real Headwind for Gold

Wagner says dollar strength is a headwind gold must overcome, and discusses the dollar’s relative value, rising Treasury yields, and how higher rates can attract investors to bonds.

The “Price Void” Setting Up in Crude Oil

Wagner sees crude oil returning above $100 as price gaps tend to fill, while warning that the rebound could be short-lived or unsustainable.

What the Fed Does Next, and the Final Takeaways

He describes a tightening Fed backdrop that can weigh on gold but says precious metals may still rise; the host adds traders’ odds for Warsh holding or hiking rates.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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