VideoBenjamin CowenBenjamin Cowen

Bitcoin Rallies to $80K | Kevin Warsh Speaking at Jackson Hole

Benjamin Cowen frames Bitcoin’s move to $80,000 against conflicting Treasury policy signals and a market pricing only a one-third chance of a September rate hike. His cycle and technical analysis draws parallels with 2018 while emphasizing that fractals, moving-average breaks, and on-chain indicators cannot confirm that the low is final. The outlook depends partly on whether stocks experience their typical August-to-mid-September correction, with $80,000–$85,000 a potential rejection zone and realized price near $53,000 a possible support area if Bitcoin declines again.

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Key Takeaways

Benjamin Cowen sees a policy conflict between Kevin Warsh's expectation that the long end of the Treasury yield curve will restrain rates and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's accelerated bond buybacks intended to push long-term yields lower. He expects Warsh to face questions about how the two approaches can operate simultaneously, while the market was pricing only a one-third chance of a September rate hike before Jackson Hole and the next labor-market report.

Cowen argues that Bitcoin trading near $80,000 does not confirm that the cycle bottom is complete, because four-year-cycle lows can occur outside the expected timing and Bitcoin can decline after a summer low. His concern is reinforced by prior midterm-year cycles in which second-half accumulation and an apparent rally were followed by a fourth-quarter decline.

Cowen's 2018 comparison identifies substantial structural similarities in Bitcoin's 2026 cycle, including comparable February lows, the roughly $57,000 versus $5,700 numerical parallel, and a delayed move toward the 50-week moving average after a longer consolidation. He acknowledges that the fractal is unconventional and does not guarantee an identical future path, particularly because the current prospective high near the prior May high differs from the 2018 structure.

Cowen treats Bitcoin's break below the 50-week moving average around $100,000 in November 2025 as confirmation of an already developing bear market rather than its starting point. He also stresses that historical reactions at the indicator have varied: Bitcoin was rejected there in 2018 and 2015 but broke through it in 2023 and the prior cycle.

CYCLE-ANALOGS

Bottom Unconfirmed — Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin trading at $80,000 does not prove the cycle bottom is complete. Four-year-cycle lows do not always occur at the end of the midterm year, and Bitcoin can still decline after a summer low. His analysis therefore treats the current $80,000 level as compatible with further downside risk.

“So, where is Bitcoin now? Well, right now, Bitcoin is at 80K. And I've had a lot of people ask, you know, is the bottom end, right?…”—

2018 Fractal — Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin's 2026 market structure has closely mirrored 2018, including comparable February lows and a numerical parallel between roughly $57,000 and $5,700. He acknowledges that this unconventional fractal analysis does not guarantee an identical future path, but says the two cycles have mimicked many important features.

“In 2018 Bitcoin formed a low at around $6,000 and in 2026 that low was around $60,000…”—

Fourth-Quarter Risk — Cowen says Bitcoin’s accumulation window began on July 1, but he still considers a fourth-quarter decline possible. In the prior two cycles, buying during the second half of the midterm year accompanied a rally that appeared to signal a bottom before prices moved lower later.

“And on July 1st, I was very clear. I said it on YouTube, I said it on Twitter, that the accumulation window for Bitcoin, in my opinion, had begun, right?…”—

MACRO-POLICY

Treasury Conflict — Benjamin Cowen highlights a policy conflict: Kevin Warsh expects the long end of the Treasury yield curve to restrain rates, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is accelerating bond buybacks to push long-term yields lower. Cowen expects Warsh to face questions about how the two approaches can operate simultaneously.

“Kevin Warsh seems to be more of the belief that forward guidance is not really needed and he also recently said that they expect essentially the long end of the…”—

MARKET-RISK

Stock Corrections — Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin’s next major move may depend more on whether the stock market corrects than on what Kevin Warsh says at Jackson Hole. Prior Bitcoin and midterm-year lows coincided with stock-market pullbacks, including a 10% decline in 2014 and 20% declines in both 2018 and 2022, typically beginning in August or September.

“what I think a lot of this comes down to is whether we get a correction in the stock market or not. That's what it comes down to…”—

Weakness Scenario — Cowen says his bearish correction thesis could be wrong if the stock market avoids its typical August-to-mid-September weakness. Under that scenario, he believes Bitcoin’s low could already be in at $57,000, although he cautions that a later deterioration could still push it lower.

“The way in which I could be wrong about that view would be if there's not a stock market correction…”—

ON-CHAIN

Profit-Loss Reset — Cowen says Bitcoin’s supply-in-profit-or-loss chart resembles the 2022 low and can support a bullish reset interpretation, but he warns that similar sharp declines in 2015 were followed by another selloff. The indicator therefore offers evidence for a bottom without proving that the low is final.

“One of the reasons is because it looks very similar to the 2022 low. And there are some indicators that would suggest that could be the low…”—

TECHNICAL-ANALYSIS

Bear Market Confirmation — Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s move below the 50-week moving average in November 2025 confirmed an already developing bear market rather than initiating it. He notes that Bitcoin was trading around $100,000 or slightly above when it broke that indicator.

“That was not the first indicator of the bare market. That was the last indicator that the bare market was in fact here back in November of 2025…”—

Fractal Uncertainty — Benjamin Cowen argues that historical Bitcoin fractals do not provide a deterministic forecast because similar patterns have produced different outcomes. Bitcoin was rejected at the 50-week moving average in 2018 and 2015, but broke through it in 2023 and in the prior cycle, leaving the current breakout question unresolved.

“Now, in 2018, we rallied to the 50we and got rejected. In 2023, we rallied to the 50we and broke through…”—

Warsh And Treasury Signals

Cowen introduces Bitcoin above $80,000, Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, conflicting Treasury bond-buyback policy, and the market’s roughly one-third probability of a September rate hike.

Bitcoin Bottom Debate

Cowen argues that a summer rally does not prove Bitcoin’s four-year-cycle low is final and introduces the need to compare the current move with prior market cycles.

Accumulation Window Strategy

Cowen reiterates that he began accumulating in July while warning that Bitcoin could still decline during the fourth quarter of the midterm year.

Fractals Complicate Bitcoin Outlook

Cowen explains why 2018, 2019, and 2022 price patterns can all resemble the current rally, making fractals unreliable for confirming that the low is in.

2018 Trendline Rejection

The 2018 pattern shows Bitcoin sweeping a summer low, retesting a broken trendline and the 50-week moving average, briefly breaking through, and then surrendering the rally.

Jackson Hole Breakout Test

Cowen compares the current approach to the 50-week moving average with 2018 and 2023, while noting that the present high is unusually close to the prior May high.

2014 And 2015 Analogues

Historical examples from 2014 and 2015 show Bitcoin rallying back to a prior resistance level before rejection and a later low, broadening the downside case beyond 2018.

Stock Market Correction Risk

Cowen says Bitcoin’s next major low depends more on whether stocks experience their typical August-to-mid-September correction than on Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks.

Conflicting On-Chain Indicators

Supply-in-profit and weekly RSI support the possibility of a completed low, while realized price and other cautious indicators have not yet fully reset.

Fifty-Week Moving Average

Cowen frames the next week or two as decisive: sustained closes above the 50-week moving average would support a breakout, while rejection could send Bitcoin toward realized price near $53,000.

When Bearishness Breaks

Cowen says acceptance above the low-to-mid-$80,000s would seriously undermine the bear-market thesis and commits to abandoning it after multiple weekly closes with follow-through.

Avoiding Missed Bitcoin Moves

Cowen advises viewers who believe the low is in not to let a missed initial rally prevent them from taking a position, while emphasizing personal responsibility and gradual accumulation.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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