DXY to Move Higher?
Benjamin Cowen argues that the U.S. dollar is likely to rebound as the Federal Reserve potentially raises interest rates again, drawing comparisons with past rate cycles and dollar patterns during the Trump administrations. He concludes that the dollar could eventually reach roughly 104–105 in 2027 or 2028, while gold's recent weakness may reflect expectations of a rising dollar.
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Read the Full SummaryKey Points
Benjamin Cowen says the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike are 60% as of September 9 and expects the dollar to rise if the hike occurs.
Cowen argues that a historical rate hike following a pause and cutting cycle caused the dollar to surge from around 90–91 to 97, supporting his bullish dollar view.
He expects the dollar to find a low, rally into a rate hike, and potentially continue rising until the Federal Reserve cuts rates again.
Fed Rate Hike Outlook
Cowen expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates again, which he believes would trigger a rebound in the U.S. dollar after its recent low.
Historical Dollar Cycles
He compares the current setup with past rate cycles, especially the 1990s, arguing that renewed Fed tightening could drive a substantial dollar rally.
Dollar Target And Gold
Cowen projects the dollar could reach roughly 104–105 in 2027 or 2028 and says gold's weakness may reflect expectations of a stronger dollar.
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