Dale Pinkert: Could 10-Year Yields Go to 7%?!
Pinkert discusses downside risks across silver, gold miners, Tesla, and the S&P 500, alongside his outlook for higher yields and a dollar that may pull back before rallying again. He sees possible entry points in silver and a potential buying opportunity in the S&P after a correction. The host also raises the possibility of a diesel sales ban and notes the jobs report's importance for yields; a separate speaker's view on MU is relayed as an opinion.
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Pinkert sees silver’s outlook as conditional: he says it could fall below $50 if yields and the dollar remain firm, while a close back above roughly $62.60 could negate the breakdown and resume the advance. For a potential entry, he would watch for the gold-silver ratio to peak—citing a prior peak of 107—or consider the low $40s.
Pinkert expects higher rates to remain a pressure point: he forecasts the 10-year yield could reach 5.30%, with a pullback toward 5.10% potentially offering another bond-short opportunity, and says the Russell may suffer from higher yields given its regional-bank exposure. The host also identifies yields as a recent market driver and says investors may hold back ahead of the jobs report, while Pinkert notes the bond market is still confirming lows and regional banks are selling off.
Pinkert expects silver to underperform gold, rising less in advances and falling harder in declines; he also says the dollar may pull back to provide temporary relief for metals but maintains a 103 target and does not think the dollar’s high is in. Separately, he describes GDX as breaking down and says miners could fall further, with a possible large washout.
GEO-POLITICS
“But, you just mentioned, Dale, before the elections, they're going to try what they can…”—
MARKETS
“So this was a major breakout at 50. So everyone's waiting to buy it here…”—
“So, you remember we talked a few months ago about Paulson putting out a warning that we need to break the glass type of, procedure or emergency type of action…”—
FORECASTS
“especially if yields and the dollar does not relent. I really think that the atmosphere and environment I want to see is going to be silver under $50…”—
“This is not bullish silver. This means silver is going to underperform. On the way up, it won't go up as much…”—
“And if the breakdown is negated and we start closing back above, say, where is this line? About 62 60ish, right in there, then you have a false breakdown…”—
– Cold Open: King Dollar's Two-Week Winning Streak
The conversation opens with a joke about the dollar and silver before Pinkert argues that a strong dollar and firm yields threaten precious metals.
– Hot PMI Data Sends the 10-Year Yield Spiking
Pinkert expects yields to rise toward 5.30%, though he allows for a short-lived pullback in rates and the dollar.
– A Terrible 5-Year Auction Adds to the Pain
The speakers do not discuss a Treasury auction; Pinkert instead describes higher yields and a potential pause near resistance.
– Are We at the Start of a New Hiking Cycle?
Pinkert says yields could eventually reach 6% or even 7%, while noting that recent technical divergences may precede a reaction.
– A Possible Diesel Export Ban, Straight From the UN General Assembly
The host raises the possibility of a diesel sales ban as a short-term policy move, and Pinkert discusses election-related market uncertainty.
– Oil Holds Its Moving Average — Still Targeting $140 Crude
Pinkert says oil has been supported by a key low but calls the current setup difficult to judge, while noting higher oil and yields have pressured markets.
– How Markets Wear You Out: A Silver Trading Lesson
Pinkert says silver could fall below $50, explaining that repeated tests weakened support and that a capitulation could create a better entry.
– Gold and Silver: A New Framework and a Line in the Sand
He treats $50 as a major historical level and says a recovery above roughly $62.60 would negate the breakdown; otherwise, he expects further weakness.
– The $3,800 Gold Target — and What Would Make Him "Back Up the Truck"
Pinkert maintains a $3,800 gold target but says the descending technical pattern could imply a lower target as time passes.
– Equities Under Pressure: Why 7,700 Matters for the S&P
He sees downside risk in the S&P 500, identifying support near 7,500 and projecting lower levels if that breaks.
– Watching the DAX, and a Winning Solar Call Revisited
The speakers do not discuss the DAX or a solar trade; Pinkert instead warns that several markets are accelerating and that Europe may be leading weakness.
– Breadth Problems and Breaking Banks
Pinkert points to falling regional-bank shares, weakness in the Dow and Russell, and a breakdown in financial stocks as signs of broad market stress.
– Careful Here: Apple, Software, and the "Mag Seven" Divergence
The conversation touches on AI-related headlines and the strength of major technology stocks, while Pinkert flags Tesla and other charts as vulnerable.
– Nothing to Buy Except Energy — Natural Gas Has a Monster Week
Pinkert says he sees few attractive purchases amid pressure from the dollar and yields, while natural gas has made a sharp but volatile move.
– A 25-Basis-Point Hike That Hurt More Than Expected
The speakers do not identify a particular 25-basis-point hike; they discuss how rising yields weigh on bonds, metals, housing, and equities.
– Bessent, Warsh, and the Fed's Balancing Act
The speakers do not discuss Bessent or Warsh; they consider whether officials might intervene if long-term yields continue rising.
– From Neutral to "Very Bearish": The Copper Reversal
Copper is not discussed; Pinkert instead describes bearish setups in precious metals, particularly silver and gold miners.
– A Wheat Question Turns Into an Unplanned Bitcoin Warning
Bitcoin is not discussed; the conversation turns to natural gas and the possibility of a diesel sales restriction.
– Back to Wheat: The "Do or Die" $7 Level
Wheat is not discussed; Pinkert says silver’s key threshold is below $50 and identifies the low $40s as a possible buying area.
– Dollar Index Targets, Plus Euro, Cable, Aussie, and Canada
The transcript does not cover the dollar index, euro, sterling, Australian dollar, or Canadian dollar in detail; Pinkert expects a dollar pullback followed by renewed strength.
– Closing Out with DBA, and Why the VIX Might Be Lying to You
DBA is not discussed; Pinkert says natural gas had a monster move and cautions that markets are unusually volatile.
– Final Bond Read: A Pause Near 5.13%, But Not Yet a Buy Signal
In the closing bond discussion, Pinkert sees yields moving higher overall but allows for a near-term pause and says jobs data could matter.
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