Bitcoin and the 50 Week Moving Average
Benjamin Cowen examines Bitcoin's test of the 50-week moving average and compares the current market structure with prior bear-market recoveries. He concludes that multiple closes above the moving average, particularly with follow-through, would likely signal that the bear market is over, while a quick rejection would preserve the possibility of further downside.
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Cowen says historical indicators provide different signals about whether Bitcoin's bear market has ended: MVRV Z-score, balance price, and realized price point to lower prices, while supply-based and time-based measures could imply a longer process.
He identifies the 50-week moving average as a historically important threshold, saying prior bull markets ended after Bitcoin recorded two weekly closes below it.
Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin's moves above the 50-week moving average in 2019 and 2023 included follow-through, which helped confirm that the bear market had ended.
He also points to 2015, 2018, and 2022 as examples in which Bitcoin reached or moved above the bear-market resistance area but was rejected at the 50-week moving average.
Bitcoin Tests 50-Week Average
Benjamin Cowen introduces Bitcoin’s rally to the 50-week moving average and frames the central question of whether this test could mark the bear market’s end.
Historical Bear-Market Signals
Cowen compares cycle timing and on-chain indicators, noting that different measures suggest either additional downside or a longer accumulation period before a durable recovery.
Follow-Through Above Resistance
Past Bitcoin recoveries in 2019 and 2023 ended their bear markets after decisive moves above the 50-week average with confirmation and follow-through.
Acceptance Versus Rejection
Cowen argues that multiple weekly closes above the 50-week average, especially with follow-through, would likely confirm the bear market is over, while rejection keeps downside possible.
Bitcoin’s Decisive Next Test
Bitcoin is testing the 50-week average for the first time this bear market; Cowen expects rejection to happen quickly, while sustained consolidation could precede a breakout.
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