Bitcoin: The Winds of Winter
Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin is in a late-stage bear-market period marked by declining social interest, compressed volatility, and pressure between major technical indicators. He concludes that volatility is likely to rise in the coming weeks, potentially producing a final drawdown before a market-cycle bottom and a subsequent new bull market, while emphasizing that Bitcoin's cycle can diverge from the stock market.
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Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin is trading around $62,000 to $63,000 while social interest declines, and he expects it eventually to break down from the range between the 200-week moving average and the bear-market resistance band.
Cowen reports that Bitcoin's 60-day volatility is 1.47% and its 30-day volatility is 1.16%, levels he describes as unusually low. He expects volatility to pick up substantially, although he does not guarantee that the next move will be downward.
The speaker says Bitcoin is tracking the 2018 market structure closely, including a February low, a lower summer low, and a lower high in May. He expects volatility to increase as the market moves from summer into fall.
Benjamin Cowen argues that another drawdown comparable to prior declines could reset Bitcoin's on-chain indicators. He says that after such a reset, lower prices would become more difficult to justify, although macroeconomic factors or market narratives could still be cited.
Bitcoin’s Winter Setup
Cowen introduces Bitcoin’s stagnant market, declining social interest, technical compression, and the possibility that weakness will precede a broader stock-market correction.
2018 Market Structure
He compares current conditions with 2018, warning that compressed volatility and complacency could give way to an unexpected catalyst and renewed market volatility.
On-Chain Reset Potential
Cowen argues that another Bitcoin drawdown could reset on-chain indicators, bring the lengthy bear market closer to its end, and make further declines harder to justify.
Hardware Wallet Fallout
He distinguishes hardware-wallet failures from Bitcoin itself, discusses the reputational damage, and encourages gradual accumulation because the market bottom may arrive quickly.
Bitcoin’s Independent Cycle
Cowen says Bitcoin can remain in a bear market while stocks rise, emphasizing its four-year cycle and expecting a return above the bear-market resistance band in coming months.
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