Bitcoin Is Setting Up For A BREAKOUT - $853m Just Flooded Into ETFs

The speakers viewed a September Federal Reserve rate hike as very unlikely despite market pricing near a 50% probability, citing fiscal dominance and the limited ability of higher real rates to control inflation driven by money creation, deficits, crowding-out effects, or oil shocks. They instead expected the next Fed move to be a cut, although weaker foreign demand could limit a year-end rally in 30-year Treasuries.

Economic data were described as potentially softening: roughly 50,000 local-government jobs were lost in August, and shrinking local-government budgets could weaken the next payroll report. At the same time, core CPI was expected to decline to 2.4% year over year from 2.6%, with crude oil and natural-gas prices heading lower.

The episode portrayed higher bond yields, expanding currency supplies, and fiscal deficits as forces increasing correlation across normally distinct assets. Gold was trading below its 200-day moving average with unusually high S&P 500 correlation and 20-year-high volatility, while Bitcoin, crypto, gold, and precious metals were all described as facing the headwind of elevated quarter-century bond yields.

Bitcoin was trading around $64,000–$65,000 after a period of selling by Saylor, while its performance lagged the S&P 500 by a wide margin—down 25% versus a 14% total-return gain for the index. Crypto excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins was described as down roughly 70%–80% on average, and the speakers said a sustained 10% S&P 500 decline would be an important test before renewed bullish sentiment could be justified.

Strategy's sale of 1,690 Bitcoin raised $653 million through MSTR shares and increased its cash reserve from about $4 billion to $4.65 billion. The speakers argued that these transactions undermine the forced-selling “doom loop” narrative, even as hedge funds had unusually flipped net long Bitcoin futures on the CME—a positioning change they cautioned does not necessarily predict higher prices.