Bitcoin Closes at the 50 Week Moving Average
Benjamin Cowen examines Bitcoin's close at the 50-week moving average, noting that exchange-specific prices place it slightly above or below the level while the broader market remains undecided. He concludes that Bitcoin needs to establish multiple closes above the moving average to substantially weaken the bear-market case, while upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve meeting could influence the next move.
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Read the Full SummaryKey Points
Bitcoin closes essentially at the 50-week moving average, with different exchanges showing slightly different results. The primary index records a close of $80,360 against a moving average near $80,361.
Bitcoin reaches approximately $82,292 and makes a higher high on the four-hour chart, but Benjamin Cowen says it remains a lower high compared with May.
Cowen says a hot nonfarm payroll report pushed rate-hike probabilities back toward the rate-hike side after they had moved to roughly 50/50.
Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin's bulls and bears remain in conflict at the 50-week moving average and that the market needs to show a sustained break above it rather than merely closing near it.
Bitcoin At 50-Week Average
Cowen explains that Bitcoin closed essentially at the 50-week moving average, with exchange-specific data showing only marginal differences above or below the level.
Jobs Report And Fed Odds
A hot labor-market report increased rate-hike expectations, contributing to Bitcoin's sell-off while leaving bulls and bears unresolved around the moving average.
Q4 Bear-Market Timing
Cowen compares Bitcoin's rally and timing with prior market cycles, arguing that bears are running out of time unless Bitcoin soon fades toward a Q4 low.
Multiple Closes Above Average
Historical examples suggest multiple closes above the 50-week moving average mark the end of bear markets, whereas rejection or weak follow-through preserves the bearish case.
Cross-Market Cycle Patterns
Cowen favors studying patterns from other markets because Bitcoin's tops and bottoms differ across cycles, and he previews further analysis of those comparisons.
Inflation Report Catalyst
Cowen expects upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve meeting to influence rate expectations and Bitcoin's next short-term move, while noting his upcoming travel.
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Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.
AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.
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