Bitcoin Rallies to the Bear Market Resistance Band
Benjamin Cowen examines Bitcoin's rally back to the bear-market resistance band after months of compression between that level and the 200-week moving average. He concludes that the market still could make another lower low, but says a failure to do so by year-end would make a bullish outlook for 2027 more appropriate, provided Bitcoin can break through and hold the resistance band.
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Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin has spent roughly four to five months compressed between the bear-market resistance band and the 200-week moving average, leaving the eventual breakout direction uncertain.
Cowen says his Bitcoin strategy for midterm years is to dollar-cost average during the second half of the year, beginning July 1, because accurately identifying the bottom is difficult.
The analyst argues that Bitcoin's rally does not establish that the bear market is over, noting that comparable rallies in prior cycles were followed by further declines.
Benjamin Cowen expects that, if Bitcoin makes another decline before the next bull market, it will occur before year-end; if there is no lower low by then, he says he would favor a bullish view entering 2027.
Bitcoin Resistance Compression
Cowen describes Bitcoin’s rally to the bear-market resistance band after months of compression between that level and the 200-week moving average.
Lower-Low Risk
Historical rallies and cycle metrics suggest Bitcoin could still make another lower low, despite the current move and ongoing investor excitement.
200-Day Moving Average
Cowen weighs Bitcoin’s daily close above the 200-day moving average against historical examples where similar breaks either preceded recovery or failed.
August Rally Patterns
Bitcoin’s strong August performance does not rule out a later decline, as prior midterm years produced sizable rallies before red monthly closes.
2027 Bullish Outlook
Cowen says a failure to print a lower low by year-end would make a bullish 2027 outlook more appropriate, especially if resistance becomes support.
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