Bitcoin: The Next 60 Days
Benjamin Cowen examines Bitcoin’s next 60 days through seasonal performance, prior bear-market cycles, and cycle-duration metrics, arguing that August through September could remain weak and that the timing of the next major low is approaching a historically important window. He concludes that October remains his leading candidate for the low, while acknowledging that sideways trading could extend the bear market into November or later and that he would revise his view if market conditions change.
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Read the Full SummaryKey Points
Cowen says the period from roughly mid-August to mid-October has historically been a weak stretch for Bitcoin, particularly in midterm years.
Cowen notes that a 10% decline from the current price would place Bitcoin near $56,000, while an additional 8% decline would move it into the low $50,000s.
He observes that prior Bitcoin cycles topped around days 1,059 to 1,068 from their lows, while the current cycle is at approximately day 1,360 and would reach day 1,420 in 60 days.
Cowen says the current cycle would be within roughly one to two weeks of prior cycle lows after 60 more days, aligning that timing with Bitcoin’s historically weak August-September period.
He argues that the current bear-market structure resembles 2018, including a February low, a higher low in late March or early April, and a later summer low, although current prices are about 10 times higher.
Bitcoin’s Weak Seasonal Window
Cowen introduces Bitcoin’s next 60 days, emphasizing historically weak August and September performance while noting that seasonality is informative but not guaranteed.
Bitcoin’s 2018 Market Structure
Cowen compares the current Bitcoin bear-market structure with 2018, highlighting similar lows, social interest, muted volatility, and the absence of a euphoric altcoin rotation.
Historical Cycle Lows
Cowen reviews prior Bitcoin cycle lows and recession-driven extensions, arguing that October is increasingly plausible as the next major low while acknowledging substantial uncertainty.
October Low Candidate
Cowen explains why October remains his leading candidate, discourages trying to time the exact bottom, and recommends a less stressful dollar-cost-averaging approach.
Sideways Trading Risk
Cowen considers a 2018-style scenario in which Bitcoin trades sideways for several months, potentially delaying the breakdown and cycle low until November.
November Conference Timing
Cowen connects the possible 59-week bear-market duration with his November conference, while stressing that the low could arrive earlier and that no specific date should be treated as certain.
Bitcoin’s Low Window
Cowen places the most likely four-year-cycle low between late September and mid-December, with the next 60 days helping distinguish October from a later outcome.
Conditional October Outlook
Cowen maintains an October-to-October bear-market thesis but will pivot if price, on-chain indicators, or sideways conditions provide evidence that the cycle is extending.
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Important Disclaimers
Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.
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