Bitcoin: Where I Went Wrong
Benjamin Cowen reflects on his failed forecast that rising energy prices, yields, interest rates, and the dollar would cause Bitcoin to decline, noting that Bitcoin instead broke above its prior high and rallied with the dollar. He concludes that his assumption about rate hikes being immediately bearish was not supported by historical data and says he must respect Bitcoin's higher-high market structure while deferring to analysts who anticipated the move.
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Read the Full SummaryKey Points
Benjamin Cowen acknowledges that his forecast that Bitcoin would not exceed its May high was wrong, as Bitcoin broke above that level and was trading at $86,000 at the time of the episode.
Cowen's original macro thesis linked rising energy prices to higher yields, a Federal Reserve rate hike, a stronger dollar, and a Bitcoin decline, but Bitcoin instead rose alongside the dollar.
He says Bitcoin's rally from its summer low has reached 50%, exceeding the roughly 40% rallies seen after summer lows in 2018 and 2022.
Cowen identifies Bitcoin's higher high as a significant departure from the lower highs that followed summer rallies in 2018 and 2022.
He says the dollar's double-bottom pattern previously coincided with a Bitcoin top, but in the current instance Bitcoin rose with the dollar instead of falling.
Bitcoin Forecast Reassessment
Benjamin Cowen introduces his review of a failed Bitcoin forecast and notes that Bitcoin broke above its prior high despite his bearish expectations.
Dollar Bitcoin Divergence
Cowen explains how energy prices, yields, Fed rate hikes, and a stronger dollar all developed as expected, but Bitcoin rallied alongside the dollar instead of falling.
Midterm Year Market Structure
Historical midterm-year patterns suggested a summer low and roughly 40% Bitcoin rally, but the current move reached 50% and produced a higher high.
Respecting Bitcoin's Breakout
Cowen compares this mistake with his 2023 forecast, acknowledges the breakout, and says he lacks the authority to predict an immediate retracement.
Rate Hikes And Bitcoin
Reviewing prior tightening cycles, Cowen finds that Bitcoin did not immediately decline after the first rate hike and recognizes that his bearish assumption lacked historical support.
September Rate Hike History
Examples from September 2018 and September 2022 show Bitcoin holding up or rising after rate hikes, reinforcing the need to reassess the current market structure.
Dollar And USDT Patterns
Cowen compares the dollar's base, double-bottom recovery, and possible future correction with USDT dominance while deferring short-term interpretation to analysts who anticipated the move.
Higher Low Possibility
Cowen concludes that rate hikes were not immediately bearish in the data and says any later Bitcoin weakness could form a higher low rather than a new bottom.
Lessons From The Forecast
Cowen restates his incorrect causal chain, commits to respecting Bitcoin's higher-high structure, and closes with a conference promotion and invitation to consider other views.
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