Bitcoin Stalls at the 50 Week Moving Average
Benjamin Cowen examines Bitcoin's stall at the 50-week moving average and compares the current rally with prior bear-market rebounds in 2015, 2018, and 2022. He concludes that the stall does not yet prove a rejection, but historical similarities give him reason to remain skeptical until Bitcoin records sustained weekly closes above the level.
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Cowen describes the 50-week moving average as a historical line in the sand: breaks below it have coincided with the end of bull markets, while moves above it have marked the start of new bull markets.
He argues that a rally above the 200-day moving average does not by itself confirm that Bitcoin has exited a bear market, citing 2015 as an example in which Bitcoin later fell back down.
Cowen sees similarities between the 2018 and 2026 market structures, including February lows, lower summer lows, and subsequent countertrend rallies.
He notes that Bitcoin's rallies from summer lows have exceeded 40% in 2018, 2022, and 2026, while the earlier rallies were followed by additional declines later in the year.
Bitcoin’s 50-Week Line
Cowen introduces Bitcoin’s stall at the 50-week moving average, explaining why the level has historically separated bear-market continuation from renewed bull markets.
2018 Bear-Market Comparison
Cowen compares the current rally with 2018, highlighting similar lows, countertrend rallies, and an identical 51 four-hour-candle move into the 50-week average.
Summer Rally Precedents
He argues that 40% rallies from summer lows also occurred in 2018 and 2022, so the current move does not establish that the bear market is over.
Election-Year Downside Risk
Cowen reviews prior cycle bottoms after midterm elections and says a future low could still arrive later, while acknowledging that timing remains uncertain.
Weekly Close Confirmation
He describes buying after summer lows despite later drawdowns, but remains skeptical until Bitcoin posts sustained weekly closes above the 50-week moving average.
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Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.
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