Bitcoin Holds Slightly Above the May High
Benjamin Cowen discusses Bitcoin holding slightly above its May high after breaking and closing above that level, a move that shifts the burden of proof from bulls to bears in his technical framework. He concludes that short-term outcomes remain unknowable and emphasizes having a predefined Q4 plan for either continued gains or a downturn rather than relying on predictions.
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Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin is trading around $83,000, slightly above the May high near $82,800, and notes that it both exceeded and closed above that level.
Cowen argues that Bitcoin's higher high and weekly close above the May high shift the burden of proof from the bulls to the bears, although he says this does not eliminate downside risk.
He acknowledges that he did not expect Bitcoin to move above the May high and says the rally has extended beyond his earlier expectations.
Cowen says dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin during the second half of the midterm year has worked for those who followed that strategy, while allowing that his views could change if conditions change.
Bitcoin Breaks May High
Cowen acknowledges that Bitcoin broke and closed above the May high, shifting the burden of proof from bulls to bears despite his earlier bearish expectations.
Investor Plans And DCA
He explains why predefined investing plans and consistent dollar-cost averaging can matter more than being correct about short-term market direction.
Q4 Bitcoin Scenarios
Cowen urges investors to prepare for both continued acceptance above the May high and a renewed Q4 decline, drawing lessons from 2018, 2022, and the FTX drawdown.
50-Week Moving Average
Comparing Bitcoin with 2019 and 2023, he notes the muted move above the 50-week average and argues that acceptance back below the May high would favor a bearish interpretation.
Planning Instead Of Predicting
Cowen acknowledges uncertainty after being wrong about the breakout and recommends a flexible Q4 plan, broader perspectives, and less reliance on short-term predictions.
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Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.
AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.
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