GOLD Just Became a Real Alternative to the Dollar (Here’s Why): Nick Campbell

Campbell links Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the weaponization of its dollar reserves to faster central-bank gold buying, arguing that nations are seeking less exposure to the U.S. financial system. He sees gold’s lack of government control and treatment as a currency—not merely an investment—as a long-term support for substantially higher prices.

Campbell says gold faces a short-term opportunity-cost headwind when Treasury yields rise because the metal provides no yield. He also notes that Federal Reserve comments recently pushed gold from above $4,600 to roughly $4,400, although he characterizes that move as temporary and argues that destabilizing events could renew demand for gold.

Campbell identifies a substantial U.S. financing challenge, with $8 trillion of debt scheduled to be refinanced over six months while trillion-dollar companies compete for capital to fund AI programs. He says potentially higher borrowing costs could increase deficit interest, while Scott Bessant’s proposal to double Treasury buybacks and purchase longer-dated debt may indicate an emerging sovereign-debt problem.

Campbell argues that government communication can temporarily move Treasury yields but cannot override market fundamentals: the initial yield decline after Treasury buyback comments reversed within days. He also says trade and tariff issues are not reducing inflationary pressures and could contribute to a need for higher interest rates, which would generally weigh on gold.

Campbell sees copper demand being supported by electrification, electric vehicles, power infrastructure, AI investment, reshoring, and remilitarization, all of which require wiring, mines, refineries, and military-stockpile replenishment. Because he expects a major supply response may take 10 to 15 years, he says copper could reach $10 per pound for a period before supply eventually responds.