PodcastWTFinanceLobo Tiggre

The West Is Running Out of Metals as the Resource War Begins | Lobo Tiggre

Lobo Tiggre argues that deficit and war spending, supply disruption, and deglobalization are inflationary pressures, while fiscal dominance limits what modest rate hikes can achieve. He sees uncertainty across commodities: gold faces near-term rate and conflict risks, copper is vulnerable to pullbacks despite long-term demand, and uranium’s rising contract price may support further gains in spot prices and related stocks. He also urges patience in commodity investing and warns that current mine economics can be undermined by rising costs over long project lives.

CommoditiesGoldBase MetalsInflationGeopolitical RiskInvestment Strategy

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Key Takeaways

Lobo Tiggre argues that US deficit and war spending, Europe’s remilitarization, and supply-chain disruption are inflationary, while China’s renewed real estate stimulus is bullish for commodities despite uncertainty about its outcome. He also says higher energy prices limit what modest Fed tightening can accomplish because rate hikes cannot create physical energy supply.

Tiggre says the latest US PCE reading was officially unchanged, not lower, and warns that a BEA methodology change makes it different from the prior month’s measure. The host’s example of a UK productivity revision that roughly doubled the previous estimate likewise illustrates how revisions can alter perceptions of economic conditions.

The speakers say the Strait of Hormuz shutdown threatened a key global economic input and was seen as inflationary, while Tiggre identifies fear of higher rates and significant Russian and Middle Eastern gold sales as pressures on gold. He likes gold and silver but says they could face near-term downside until the war ends, the Fed rate-hike question is settled, or both; he also cautions that gold-project economics based on $4,000 prices may not hold over long mine lives.

Tiggre says copper is at nominal all-time highs, partly on expectations of White House tariffs, and he will not chase it despite his long-term bullish view. He points to a prior episode when copper fell sharply after disappointing tariff news but copper equities moved only slightly, while cautioning that copper and its stocks could fall further in specified war, oil, or AI-scare scenarios.

TECHNOLOGY

AI Construction Spending — Lobo Tiggre says AI data-center construction is creating jobs for pipe fitters, electricians, and concrete workers. He cites hundreds of billions of dollars in current spending and budgets of a couple trillion dollars over the next few years, while cautioning that some spending may not happen and AI hype may be overdone.

“I mean, it's blue collar jobs to build these data centers…”—

ECONOMY

Inflationary Spending — Lobo Tiggre argues that US deficit and war spending, Europe’s remilitarization, supply-chain disruption, and deglobalization are inflationary. He does not see deflation as the likely outcome and says deficit-funded spending is reaching Main Street more directly than after the 2009–10 financial crisis. He cites a $2 trillion deficit 11 months into fiscal 2026.

“We hit $2 trillion in deficit 11 months into fiscal 26. I mean that is that is astounding. All that money's got to go somewhere…”—

China Property Stimulus — Lobo Tiggre says China’s renewed effort to stimulate its real estate market is notable given the excesses of the earlier property boom. He views the move as bullish for commodities, while acknowledging uncertainty about how it will play out.

“The one standout has been China, which maybe makes the most unappreciated headline of the week that China not just doing another round of stimulus, they've been doing it sort…”—

PCE Methodology — Lobo Tiggre says US PCE was officially unchanged, not lower, despite coming in cooler than expected. He says the BEA changed its methodology, making the latest statistic different from the prior month’s and potentially leading markets to misread the inflation signal.

“Well, there's a softball question as we're recording. It's PCE day and Mr. Market seems to be celebrating that PCE came in cooler than expected. No, it didn't actually decrease…”—

MARKETS

Gold and Conflict — The speakers argue that gold responded differently to this conflict because the Strait of Hormuz shutdown threatened a primary input to the global economy and was seen as inflationary. Tiggre says fears of higher interest rates weighed on gold, while questioning whether gold and interest rates could rise together after the Fed began raising rates.

“it also helped in 22 but not as much. And there are other times we've seen this tends to be short-lived but it tends to be positive…”—

Official Gold Sales — Tiggre says significant gold sales by Russia and Middle Eastern countries added pressure on gold. He interprets governments’ use of gold reserves as drawing on an insurance-like store of wealth during a crisis.

“No, there's nothing wrong with gold. It's doing its job. just fine…”—

Gold Mine Economics — Tiggre cautions that gold projects modeled at $4,000 may face rising costs over 10- to 20-year mine lives, so their current feasibility economics may not hold. He argues for more conservative price assumptions: a project showing a 40% IRR at $3,500 gold could still deliver a robust 25%–30% return at $3,000, making it more credible and fundable. A payback period under two years can justify a higher price assumption because it shortens the time in which rising costs could undermine the economics.

“I said I said they look economical. That's an important point…”—

FORECASTS

Volcker-Style Shock — Tiggre argues that a Volcker-style increase in interest rates to 20% would crush demand, push the US and global economies into recession, reduce oil use, and lower oil prices. He says there is no political appetite for such a move.

“Now, that doesn't mean that the Fed is completely impotent…”—

Precious Metals Outlook — Tiggre likes gold and silver but says they could still fall in the near term until the war ends, the Fed rate-hike question is settled, or both. He rejects the idea that prices will move straight up and says an obvious Fed policy error could benefit gold and silver.

“And an obvious policy error by the Fed would, I would guess, would be pretty good for gold and silver.”—

Oil Buying Opportunity — Lobo Tiggre expects the fallout from the war to keep oil prices higher for the next few years. He expects a negotiated end to the Middle East conflict could cause oil to sell off too sharply and create a buying opportunity; he says he has cash set aside for that possibility.

“oil similarly and not such a long-term positive view as I have on copper, but I think the fallout from the war means higher oil prices for the next few…”—

Introduction

The host asks about the economy and markets, and Tiggre says deficit and military spending, supply-chain disruption, and deglobalization make inflation more likely than deflation. China's renewed real-estate stimulus also looks bullish for commodities.

Overview of the economy and markets

Discussing the PCE release, Tiggre cautions that a methodology change makes the latest figure difficult to compare with earlier data, while the host questions the reliability of government statistics and surveys.

Inflation data

Tiggre argues that inflationary fiscal responses to war and supply disruptions can pressure precious metals through expectations of higher rates, even as gold remains a long-term store of value and mining economics still look attractive.

Surprised about precious metals drop

Tiggre says gold's rapid rise made a pullback reasonable, and that oil-price and rate-hike concerns help explain its weakness. Sovereign selling added pressure, but he remains a long-term bull and sees no fundamental break in gold.

Mine investing

Tiggre warns that mine feasibility studies should use cautious gold-price assumptions because costs rise over long development periods. Investors should favor robust projects with strong returns at lower prices and shorter payback periods.

FED lost control of bond market?

Tiggre sees fiscal dominance limiting the Fed's effectiveness: modest hikes cannot offset war-driven energy costs and government spending, while a Volcker-style response could crush demand but is politically unlikely.

Economic strength?

Tiggre sees some unexpected economic resilience as AI data-center construction sends substantial spending to skilled trades and local businesses, though he doubts the AI investment boom can be assumed to last.

Commodity outlook

Tiggre favors commodities governments cannot print but advises against chasing expensive copper, gold, or silver shares. He sees potential in oil after war-related disruption and considers uranium stocks attractive as contract prices climb.

Copper

Tiggre says he would wait for a copper pullback rather than chase new highs, with renewed conflict or an AI-market shock possible catalysts. He has begun investing some profits in uranium and will hold cash for opportunities.

One message to takeaway

Tiggre's main advice is to practice discipline and patience, wait for good entry points, and avoid impulsive decisions. He points listeners to his website and free weekly letter.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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