Metals Bull Market is Just Getting Started (Gold, Copper, & Uranium) | Jérémie Boyer | Aurelion

AI and the energy transition are increasing copper demand, while new mines typically require 10 to 15 years to reach production, limiting supply responsiveness. Boyer says some copper producers are entering an earnings phase in which higher prices and lower capital expenditures could generate substantial free cash flow, with liquid names such as Freeport and Southern Copper favored by institutional investors.

Boyer sees a long-term uranium demand pipeline from planned nuclear construction in China, France, the United Kingdom, and India, alongside governments' green-energy commitments. He says uranium could be entering a more durable growth phase, although delayed nuclear construction or substitution with coal would pose risks.

Boyer expects gold to move higher this year and views its recent decoupling from oil as supporting a bullish stance, with real rates, Federal Reserve policy, liquidity, geopolitics, fund flows, central-bank buying, and Chinese purchases remaining important drivers. However, India's slowdown in gold purchases creates a near-term physical-demand drag, and Boyer says a cautious gold-miner allocation could be about 5% to 7% rather than 20% because conditions can change quickly.

Boyer is moderately bearish on crude oil and expects supply and demand to remain broadly balanced over the next three to six months; he says $110 is possible, while prices above $120 appear unlikely without an unpredictable supply shock. Reduced Chinese imports, rising inventories, tanker movements, a dark fleet, and potentially unobserved Iranian pipelines point to demand weakness and more supply than visible transit data may suggest, while infrastructure damage—not only Strait of Hormuz fears—helped create the initial price premium.

Boyer's model portfolio emphasizes direct, long-only mining-equity exposure rather than ETFs or options, currently holding two uranium companies and one copper company. Commodities represent roughly 25% to 30% of the portfolio, including about 15% in mining and 10% in shipping, while he plans to add one or two gold companies without treating a bullish gold view as justification for a 20% allocation.