Gold's War Time Premium Finally HERE - 'Significantly Higher' as Exit Ramps Shatter: James Rickards
Rickards argues that Iran remains resilient, maritime disruptions can constrain shipping without a complete blockade, and BRICS payment rails do not yet replace the dollar’s reserve-currency or Treasury-market role. He links rising Treasury yields, Japan’s yen support, and potential gold-certificate revaluation to U.S. debt costs and gold’s monetary role. He expects persistent energy disruptions and continued gold strength, while viewing silver as a potential later-stage catch-up trade with meaningful recession and bubble risks.
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Rickards argues that Iran’s regime remains intact despite the loss of more than 100 senior leaders, while its enriched uranium and enrichment capability could eventually be restored. At the same time, Iran and its Houthi allies can disrupt shipping through periodic attacks on the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb without imposing a complete blockade.
Rickards distinguishes the development of BRICS bilateral payment rails from a true replacement for the dollar: local-currency settlement can bypass SWIFT, Fedwire, and direct dollar settlement, but does not replace the dollar’s reserve role or the U.S. Treasury market. He says the dollar still represents about 59% of global reserves versus roughly 28% for the euro, while reserve-currency transitions take centuries.
Rickards attributes recent Treasury selling by Japan, China, and other reserve holders primarily to the need for scarce dollars to defend their currencies, rather than to an abandonment of the dollar or U.S. bonds. He says Japan is supporting the yen through rate increases and a currency swap supplied by Scott Bessent, avoiding Treasury sales that could otherwise push U.S. rates higher.
The 10-year Treasury yield has reached 5%, with 20- and 30-year yields near 5.4% and 5.6% and potentially rising to 6%, which would increase U.S. debt-service costs. Rickards says the yuan is not a practical reserve substitute because China lacks a sufficiently large and liquid government-bond market and has exchange controls, limited maturities, few hedging instruments, and weaker rule-of-law protections.
Rickards argues that the Treasury’s ownership of approximately 8,100 metric tons of gold could support a revaluation of the Federal Reserve’s gold certificate from $42.22 per ounce to about $4,300, generating roughly $1 trillion without issuing new debt. He says the accounting change would acknowledge gold’s monetary role and could be psychologically bullish, although it would not automatically increase the gold price.
GEO-POLITICS
“Their goals are survive, you regime survival, which they've accomplished. You know, Trump talked about regime change. Well, we've had a lot of leadership change…”—
“All you have to do is blow a ship up every couple days…”—
TECHNOLOGY
“they keep talking about it, but they're they're hyping their IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic. but I explain why that won't happen…”—
ECONOMY
“Yields are continuing to rise on US treasuries. We've recently seen the 10-year note hit 5%. And I believe this is the highest yield since 2007…”—
“It's why Scott Bessant gave the Japanese hundreds of billions of dollars, US dollars in what's called a currency swap…”—
MARKETS
“normally the conventional wisdom is say interest rates go up. Gold doesn't have interest. We understand that…”—
“So, what both of those things, crack spreads and the wet cargo price, the spot price, are telling you is that oil is really about $150 a barrel, give or…”—
“And when you look at the demand for semiconductor chips, the backlog at Nvidia, these hyperscaler data centers that Microsoft and Anthropic and Open AAI and Apple and Amazon and…”—
FORECASTS
“So, yeah, is it down from 4,500 to 4,300? Yeah, but the important thing is A, that's normal volatility. B, it's nowhere near the interim low, which was 3,900…”—
“So that's not going to get better. That's going to get worse. You can't bomb your way to victory…”—
Coming Up
Rickards says gold’s pullback is normal volatility, while Iran’s resilience, Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions, and resulting inflation create a persistent wartime premium.
Gold's War Time Premium
Rickards expects silver to lag gold initially but catch up later, supported by precious-metals momentum and strong electronics and data-center demand despite recession and bubble risks.
Will Silver Shine Again?
Rising Treasury yields increase federal debt-service costs, but Rickards emphasizes that yields also reflect dollar shortages, Japan’s currency defense, and reserve-management pressures.
Sovereign Debt Crisis Ahead?
The dollar is not nearing replacement: BRICS lacks a unified, liquid bond market and rule-of-law infrastructure, while its payment rails remain separate from reserve assets.
US Dollar Nearing its End?
Rickards explains that BRICS bilateral payment systems can reduce sanctions exposure but do not replace the dollar, Treasury securities, or the broader U.S. financial system.
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Could the US Revalue Gold?
Rickards explains how revaluing the Federal Reserve’s gold certificate could create roughly one trillion dollars for the Treasury without new debt, while signaling gold’s monetary importance.
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