PodcastKitcoGerald Celente

Markets Haven't Crashed Yet, and Here's Why, Gerald Celente Says

Celente argues that monetary support has delayed the market crash he expected, even as rising yields, economic strain, and war-driven energy costs point to growing pressure. He warns of an impending equity crash, forecasts “dragflation” and higher gold prices, and remains bullish on silver over the long term. The host also cites labor and employment data, while the discussion addresses U.S. deployments, Iran's proposed Hormuz transit fee, and China's technology position.

EquitiesMarket ValuationsGoldSilverInterest RatesGeopolitical Risk

Preview · 19 more points in the app

Read the Full Summary

Key Takeaways

The host reported that a third U.S. carrier group and an amphibious group were heading to the region, adding about 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines, while Iran's parliament was moving a bill to charge ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about one-fifth of global oil before the war. Celente warned that the war could escalate ahead of Israel's October 27 election, but said he would wait until after that election and the U.S. midterms before giving a 2027 outlook.

The episode linked the U.S.-Iran war to energy-cost concerns: Celente cited an ECB warning about energy-price inflation risk and an FT report that the war adds €100 billion to the EU's fuel bill. He also contrasted crude exports above 98% of pre-war levels with Gulf refined-fuel exports at 58%, citing depleted Chinese diesel stocks, Russia's export ban through October, and a G7 release of up to 100 million barrels over four months.

The host cited diesel at $6.39 per gallon, up from $3.71 a year earlier, and noted that trucks carry about 73% of U.S. freight by weight; he raised the effect on grocery bills as a question rather than a conclusion. Separately, Celente described restaurant businesses he visits as down more than 30% on average, an anecdotal sign of pressure.

Celente argued that young people face strain from low-paying work and declining small businesses, while the host cited New York Fed data showing 5.6% unemployment among college graduates ages 22–27, up from 4% in mid-2023, with 42% in jobs that do not require a degree. The host also reported that July and August employment were revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs, twice the September addition cited in the segment.

Celente said Treasury yields were at what he called 2007 highs and argued that higher yields raise borrowing costs for governments, businesses, and consumers, invoking 2008 as a warning rather than predicting a repeat. In a separate credit-risk warning, he cited KKR's concern about growing risks from AI spending.

GEO-POLITICS

Gun Checks — The host reports that gun-purchase background checks topped 1.1 million in August, up 2.2% year over year. June was up almost 12% and July more than 8%. The figures show increased background-check activity but do not establish why it rose.

“Guns background check for gun purchases topped 1.1 million in August. That's up 2.2% from a year earlier. July was up almost 12%. July sorry, June was up almost 12…”—

U.S. Deployment — The host says the Iran war is in its eighth month and a third U.S. aircraft carrier group, along with an amphibious group, is heading to the region. He reports that the deployment adds about 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines.

“Let's ask you about that then. Let's go into the war with Iran now in its eighth month…”—

Hormuz Fee — The host says Iran's parliament is advancing a bill to charge ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. About one-fifth of the world's oil flowed through the strait before the war.

“Iran's parliament is moving a bill to charge ships a fee to pass through the Strait of Hormuz…”—

TECHNOLOGY

China's Tech Lead — Celente argues China is positioned to lead in AI, citing its leadership in EVs, batteries, and alternative energy. As context, he notes that the share of Chinese 18-year-olds attending college rose from 10% to almost 70%.

“Go back 25 years ago. Bill Clinton brought China into the World Trade Organization. 10% of Chinese 18y olds went to college back then. Now almost 70%.”—

ECONOMY

Youth Economic Strain — Celente argues that young people face economic strain, pointing to low-paying jobs in social services, health care, and hospitality, as well as demand for free services. He links the pressure to small businesses declining as larger chains expand.

“They're broke and busted. 14 to 29 year olds. I want free child care. I want free bus rides. I want free free. I got lousy jobs…”—

Yields And Tension — Celente argues that rising Treasury yields—at what he calls 2007 highs—are at odds with Wall Street's rise because they increase borrowing costs for governments, businesses, and consumers. He invokes the 2008 Great Recession as a warning, not as a prediction that it will necessarily recur.

“that the that Wall Street is going up at a time when Treasury yields are at 2007 highs…”—

Job Revisions — The host says the Labor Department revised July and August employment downward by a combined 60,000 jobs, twice the September addition cited in the segment.

“I mean, the Labor Department revised July and August down by a combined 60,000 jobs. That's twice what September added.”—

MARKETS

Market Manipulation — Celente cites JPMorgan Chase's agreement to pay more than $920 million and admit wrongdoing in a U.S. market-manipulation probe as support for his view that markets are rigged. The probe concerned precious metals; his broader claim also covers equity and gold markets.

“A Reuters, mainstream media. JP Morgan Chase opens a new tab. has agreed to pay more than $920 million and admitted wrongdoing. WRONGDOING? HOW ABOUT CRIMINAL ACTS? OH, NO…”—

Gold Market Drivers — The host says the odds of a rate hike fell from 64% to about 22%. Lower rates can reduce gold's opportunity cost because gold pays no interest. Celente says Russia, Turkey, and Mexico are selling gold while China is buying more, without specifying amounts or reasons.

“64% a week ago, about 22% now. Lower rates usually help gold because gold from what people say don't pay interest. When rate falls obviously holding it costs you less.”—

FORECASTS

Equity Crash — Celente predicts an equity-market crash is near and says it will mirror 1929. He calls markets overvalued and concentrated in a handful of companies, citing his claim that 1% of Americans own 54% of the equity markets.

“No, it's I'm telling you this is going to be this is going to be a crash. Yeah. That is going to mirror 1929…”—

Dragflation And Gold — Celente forecasts what he calls “dragflation”—declining economic growth and rising inflation—and argues that higher inflation should bring higher gold prices.

“So, it's going to be what we call dragflation. Declining economic growth and rising inflation. And the higher inflation goes, the higher gold prices should go.”—

Why Celente Says These Are the Worst Times He's Seen

Celente says these are the most troubling conditions he has witnessed, citing economic hardship, weak confidence, and a widening disconnect between rising markets and everyday life.

Wall Street vs. Main Street

He argues that Wall Street gains mask Main Street distress, pointing to low-wage work, shuttered small businesses, and concentrated wealth while younger voters seek affordability and public services.

Fuel Prices, Rising Yields and Crash Risk

Celente connects higher fuel and diesel costs with rising Treasury yields and a weakening economy, warning that borrowing costs and delivery expenses are increasing alongside crash risk.

Jobs Revisions: What Should You Believe?

The host reviews weak job growth and downward revisions; Celente says official figures are unreliable and alleges that political leaders and financial institutions manipulate markets and public perceptions.

AI Bubble, China and a New Dot-Com Bust

Celente predicts an AI-related dot-com-style bust, arguing that China has built stronger technology capabilities while many U.S. firms are debt-heavy and rising rates threaten investment.

A 1929-Style Crash and the Three G's

He forecasts a crash comparable to 1929 and says concentrated stock ownership heightens risk; his “three Gs”—guns, gold, and a getaway plan—reflect economic and geopolitical fears.

Gold Selloff, Silver and What Celente Is Buying

Celente sees gold’s decline as temporary and says he is buying, while remaining bullish on silver because industrial and clean-energy uses are growing and available supply is limited.

Celente's Getaway Plan: Get to the Country

He recommends having a rural escape plan, arguing that cities could become more dangerous amid economic breakdown, while describing nuclear conflict as his greatest fear.

Celente Fears the Iran War Will Escalate

Celente warns that the Iran conflict could intensify, citing U.S. deployments, Israeli political pressures, and the risk of escalation; he criticizes war-making and argues that ordinary people worldwide bear the costs.

Fuel Shortages, Oil Prices and Main Street

The host and Celente discuss constrained refined-fuel exports and high diesel prices; Celente says forecasts of a quick return to normal are unreliable and households face rising costs.

Gen Z Revolt, Monopolies and the Cost of Living

Celente links Gen Z discontent to poor job prospects, debt, corporate concentration, and lost small businesses, arguing that anger could fuel populist politics and street protests.

Celente's Advice to Young Adults and a New Renaissance

His advice to young adults is to stay physically and spiritually healthy, keep learning, and remain open-minded; he hopes a renewed cultural renaissance can restore art, beauty, and human dignity.

Why Celente Says Change Starts at Home

Celente says social renewal begins with families and parenting rather than Washington, emphasizing values, care, and the importance of raising children well.

Why the Crash Hasn't Come Yet

He explains that his crash calls were delayed by quantitative easing and near-zero rates, but maintains that his analysis follows available evidence and criticizes political and bureaucratic power.

Why He's Holding His 2027 Call

Celente declines to make a 2027 forecast before upcoming elections, saying developments in Israel and the United States, especially possible war escalation, could change the outlook.

Where Celente Finds Hope for the Future

He finds hope in restoring human values and believes young people, effective social media organizing, and renewed antitrust enforcement could challenge corporate power and revive civic life.

War, Washington and the Military-Industrial Complex

Celente condemns foreign wars and the military-industrial complex, quoting Eisenhower and Smedley Butler while urging restraint, attention to domestic needs, and fewer overseas entanglements.

Related Episodes

Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

Our Commentary · Request Removal