Trading Desk - October 8th 2026

The guest sees equities as vulnerable to a mismatch between higher borrowing costs and elevated prices: stocks remain near highs as investors count on earnings growth, even though only 20% were above their 50-day moving averages earlier in the week. A fall in the S&P 500 to around 7,700 could trigger systematic selling, with estimates of as much as $85 billion in sales in a down market.

The guest warns that an escalation affecting barrels moving through the Oman lane could push oil higher because the inventory cushion is thin. He says crude above $100 could prompt a response in rates and potentially help break down equities, while a rise in crude could also add short-term pressure on gold.

The guest describes near-term headwinds for gold from rising real rates and dollar-funding stress, alongside heavy price action and little follow-through. He says higher crude could contribute to a corrective break below 4,000, which he views as a long-term buying opportunity, but sees no technical reason for precious metals to turn bullish imminently.