6% Yields By Year-End, 9% Mortgages—Stocks Get ‘Rug Pulled’ | Todd Horowitz

Horowitz argues inflation is closer to 10% than reported CPI of 3.4% or 3.7% and that rates need to rise, but he also cites consumer credit stress—19% of credit-card borrowers 90 days past due, with 9% of auto loans and 8% of mortgages in default—and warns higher rates could slow sales and housing. He says mortgage rates could reach 9%.

Horowitz blames Fed rate manipulation for helping build bubbles and favors having the free market set rates; he contrasts the 10-year yield’s rise from near zero to 4.5% in 2020–2023, which he says hurt stocks, bonds, and real estate, with a roughly 50-basis-point move from 4.5% that he considers less concerning. He argues that markets adjust under capitalism.

On oil, Horowitz rejects an overall shortage, citing more than a 300-year U.S. supply at current usage and arguing that refining capacity is the constraint. His outlook is for oil to fall below $70 before year-end, although he says renewed fighting in Iran could push it into the $90s in the next couple of weeks.

Horowitz describes the stock rally as retail-driven and low-participation, with volume around 50% of normal and commercial traders absent, while the Nasdaq and S&P break out and the Dow and Russell sit near support. He is bearish as a trader and is waiting for bearish top-end action before taking a longer-term short, but says nontraders are generally better off holding equities than trying to time the market.