Inside the Revival of Venture Capital Liquidity with an…

PodcastGoldman Sachs ExchangesHans SwildensOct 6

The guest sees rapid AI adoption reshaping older technology companies and creating opportunities for firms that can adapt, while faster competitive cycles may cause private valuations to rise and fall before an exit. He describes venture secondaries as a growing source of liquidity as companies stay private longer, with pricing transparency and secondary-on-secondary deals adding to market activity. He also discusses portfolio construction, potential buyout exits, AI-related acquisitions, and opportunities tied to changes in satellite systems.

Venture Capital Artificial Intelligence Market Valuations

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Key Takeaways

AI is widening the divide among older technology companies: businesses that have not rearchitected their systems may lose momentum as budgets shift or AI threatens their offerings, while the guest sees potential for a small cohort of vertical SaaS and technology-services firms to use AI to improve growth, profitability, and efficiency.

The guest describes technology innovation as a worldwide platform shift still in its early stages, but says rapid change has compressed the window for private technology companies to succeed; valuations can expand and contract before a company goes public as competitive threats emerge.

The guest expects digital AI and physical AI to converge through hardware, and says transformation is already beginning in healthcare, with financial services, U.S. reindustrialization, and military technology also changing. He sees opportunities for entrepreneurs but does not quantify the investment potential.

The guest estimates venture secondaries at about $170 billion this year, against a primary market that might reach $1 trillion, and says secondaries could eventually become larger than primaries. He points to more than $1 trillion to more than $3 trillion in NAV in prior funds, illiquidity beyond the top 25 private-company names, and increasing transaction transparency as relevant features of the market.

TECHNOLOGY

AI Adoption Gap — AI adoption is producing sharply different outcomes among older companies. Businesses that have not rearchitected their systems may be decelerating as budgets shift or AI tools threaten their offerings. Companies that rebuilt their tech stacks around AI are seeing faster adoption and growth among existing customers.

“I mean there's a cohort of older companies that haven't seen acceleration…”—

Compressed Tech Cycles — Rapid technological change has shortened the window for private technology companies to succeed. The guest says valuations may expand and then contract while companies are still private as competitive threats emerge.

“You're buying private securities, they're growing, you're seeing multiple expansion, you're seeing, you know, extreme valuation expansion, but then, you know, while they're still private, you're seeing potentially contraction due…”—

AI Vertical Pivots — The guest sees an investment opportunity in a small cohort of older vertical SaaS and technology-services companies with strong teams that can incorporate AI into their products. He says they may become faster-growing and more profitable while improving efficiency and lowering personnel costs.

“I think there's a great investment opportunity in a small, cohort of those companies, where they still have, you know, amazing founders, great management teams, good technical talent, where they've…”—

MARKETS

Venture Secondaries — The guest estimates the venture secondary market at about $170 billion this year, compared with a primary market that might reach $1 trillion. He says venture secondaries could eventually exceed the primary market, citing a historical primary-market range of $300 billion to $500 billion and the fact that secondary markets are larger than primary markets in other asset classes. He also describes secondary-on-secondary transactions as an emerging source of activity.

“And so we think that the venture growth market on the secondary side of the market can be larger than the primary side of the market…”—

Seller Motivations — The guest says secondary sellers have shifted from predominantly distressed exits toward gains-driven sales, including portfolio rebalancing, profit-taking, and risk management. Portfolios are still sometimes sold below original cost.

“A lot of it was distressed sellers just exiting things they didn't need or want anymore…”—

Illiquid Venture NAV — The guest cites divergent NAV marks and concentration in the top 25 private-company names as features of venture-market illiquidity. Beyond those names, he says the market includes 30,000 private companies and is quite illiquid. He relays estimates of more than $1 trillion to more than $3 trillion in NAV in prior funds, and says even a normalized 50 IPOs a year would not return enough capital to the market.

“Think the nav marks, some of them are undervalued, some of them are overvalued, and that's becoming more extreme of whether or not something's very overvalued or very undervalued, because…”—

FORECASTS

Satellite Change — The guest expects satellite systems around the planet to change dramatically within five years. He also identifies lunar and interplanetary travel, mining, and a possible moon base as areas of opportunity.

“So there's a bunch of opportunities now with going to the moon or interplanetary travel or everything from mining to a moon base…”—

Venture Secondary Liquidity

The host introduces the venture liquidity crunch, and Wildens explains that secondary sellers have shifted from distressed holders to investors seeking portfolio rebalancing, profit-taking, and risk management.

Private Market Liquidity

Wildens describes illiquid NAV, concentrated demand for leading private companies, and limited IPO capacity, while explaining how tenders, continuation vehicles, and LP sales help release capital.

AI Reshapes Company Valuations

AI adoption is accelerating some older businesses while weakening others, and the higher bar for public listings helps explain why companies stay private and use secondary markets for liquidity.

AI Investment Underwriting

Wildens says venture pricing relies on qualitative judgments about markets, products, and competitive moats, while faster technology cycles can compress growth and trigger valuation declines before an exit.

Industry Ventures Origins

Wildens traces his path from startup founder to technology investor and says the dot-com collapse prompted him to build a business providing liquidity to venture investors.

Secondary Market Growth

Wildens sees venture secondaries gaining scale, potentially exceeding primary activity over time, with secondary-on-secondary transactions and greater pricing transparency supporting market growth.

Goldman Sachs Combination

Wildens says Industry Ventures joined Goldman Sachs after reaching a new stage of growth, seeking institutional scale and a trusted partnership to support investors, employees, and the business.

AI And Satellite Opportunities

Looking toward 2030, Wildens expects AI to converge with physical technology and transform healthcare, finance, industry, defense, and space, including satellite systems.

Investor Lessons And Outlook

In the closing lightning round, Wildens credits varied investing experience and long-term specialization for his judgment, and says broad innovation makes this an especially exciting period to invest.