André Perold: Why Alignment Drift – Not Performance – Is the Real Exit Trigger

Perold sees exponential change in AI and healthcare, including GLP-1 drugs, alongside persistent forces such as war and deficits. He cites a U.S. budget deficit of $2 trillion and growing, describing it as a problem for the next generation but potentially favorable for investing.

Perold says investors who believe AI could profoundly change the world may consider a dedicated AI sleeve, with venture as one way to gain exposure to disruption; he emphasizes that the scale and nature of the change remain uncertain and that venture should sit alongside other investments. He also cautions that genuinely strong, long-duration exponential businesses may command very high prices, without implying that any price is justified.

Perold argues that attractive strategies can draw sophisticated capital and become crowded, making simple value investing less compelling as opportunities are competed away. He looks instead for potentially durable alpha in specialized areas with many small opportunities and large upside, while noting that long-short traded credit may also face competition that erodes its opportunity.

Perold describes GLP-1 drugs as a profound, systemic change in healthcare, while warning that small-cap biotech investing carries substantial risks: companies burn cash, may dilute shareholders, and can fail or be sold after success. He says the area requires scientific specialization, though smaller investors may have more flexibility to trade.