Stock Market Crash Risk Changed in Just 3 Days, Peter Grandich Says
Grandich warns of U.S. fiscal and household pressures and sees interest rates' path of least resistance as higher, while the host cites elevated inflation expectations and supply bottlenecks. Grandich also points to weak market breadth and major-bank declines as possible signs of a serious correction, alongside a stronger outlook for gold and resource markets. He sees potential upside in gold, copper, and agricultural commodities, but describes risks and conditions that could shape those forecasts.
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Peter Grandich links rising living and commuting costs to economic divergence and the growing appeal of hard-left politics, pointing to close Senate races in Texas and Minnesota as examples. He expects a leftward shift that includes Democrats regaining at least the House to bring more taxation and state-level socialist programs, even as he argues a smaller share of Americans would be supporting the broader population.
Grandich says fixed costs account for 65% of U.S. spending and warns the country could struggle to pay interest within a few years; he also says two-thirds of Americans, including some earning $300,000, live paycheck to paycheck, limiting room for further tax increases. He separately flags private-credit losses and business bankruptcies as strains on banks, and says a 10-year Treasury yield above 6% would indicate a financial crisis in which leveraged hedge-fund Treasury positions would be in serious trouble.
Grandich expects no rate increase in October but predicts another in December, arguing that inflation will remain high and the Fed will want to avoid appearing behind the curve; he says the path of least resistance for rates is up. The host cites New York Fed data showing expected inflation near 4%, the highest in three years, and WTO warnings that fuel and fertilizer bottlenecks could keep prices high.
Grandich says passive investments account for 60% of U.S. stock-market money and algos make up two-thirds of the remainder, arguing that passive flows can reinforce gains and worsen declines. Against that backdrop, he points to double-digit declines in the average S&P 500 stock, more new lows than highs despite an index record, and the top 10 banks entering correction territory as signs of possible broader market trouble.
GEO-POLITICS
“The problem comes down and the big story for the rest of the year and as you know I wrote about it is the election…”—
TECHNOLOGY
“And the combination of AI and robotics, I don't know how we have the same type of employment scenario 5 years from now.”—
ECONOMY
“65% of America's cost is fixed. It's social security, Medicare, veterans pay, things you if you cut, you basically end people's lives…”—
“Twothirds of Americans are working paycheck to paycheck. Some as much as earning 300,000, but still working paycheck to paycheck because of the lifestyle that they're trying to live…”—
“You know, we still have a very troubling private credit issue. We still see people locked up, unable to get large sums back of their money…”—
MARKETS
“Let's keep this in mind. 60% of the money in the US stock market now is in passive investments. people aren't even using active management anymore…”—
“Well, if that was the case, then people need to explain to me the two biggest rallies ever in gold since it's been free trading…”—
“Well, I would say that that battle is almost evenly split…”—
FORECASTS
“And that is a brief visit under 4,000 here from this level, which isn't a lot…”—
“If we get above 6% on the 10-year, I would just tell you some sort of financial crisis has occurred.”—
“Unfortunately what comes also impacting us now is weather and weather and how it's in impacted on the agricultural side. Now I've never been an agricultural expert…”—
Why He Got Out of Gold Before the Drop
Grandich says he sold nearly all his gold, metals, and uranium positions after a parabolic rally and overwhelming bullish sentiment, but has since traded back into some positions.
The Parabolic Move That Told Him to Sell
He sees sentiment shifting sharply from gold euphoria to fears that rates and the dollar will hurt prices, which he treats as a potentially bullish contrarian signal.
A Quick Dip Under $4,000 Would Set Up the Next Run
Grandich says a brief fall below $4,000 could establish a psychologically useful bottom, after which he expects gold to challenge prior highs and eventually make new records.
China Shops for Gold While America Shops on Credit
He contrasts Chinese shoppers and central-bank gold buying with American consumer borrowing, arguing that Asia's steady accumulation supports long-term demand for gold.
The Myth That Rising Rates Kill Gold
Grandich rejects the idea that rising interest rates automatically hurt gold, citing past rallies during rising-rate periods and continued physical buying on price weakness.
Who Really Sets the Gold Price Now
He says price-setting influence has shifted toward Asia as physical demand and regional exchanges grow, while paper trading still affects short-term moves.
A Stock Market Crash Is No Longer Unlikely
Grandich says a serious market correction is now more plausible because passive investing may amplify declines as well as gains, changing his recent risk assessment.
The Market Is Weaker Than the Record Highs Suggest
Despite record S&P highs, he points to weak breadth, many stocks far below their peaks, and more new lows than new highs as evidence of deterioration.
When the Banks Turn Down, Trouble Follows
Grandich warns that major-bank declines and stress in private credit could foreshadow a broader market correction, with household weakness and reduced spending adding pressure.
America May Struggle to Pay Its Interest in Years, Not Decades
He argues that U.S. debt and fixed spending have become serious near-term risks, with deficits large enough to make interest payments harder to manage within years.
Who Pays When the Bill Comes Due
Grandich expects taxpayers and working households to bear much of the fiscal strain, warning that high living costs and political pressure could drive tax increases and cuts to services.
The Lifetime Mining Opportunity He Sees in Canada
He sees Canadian mining as an unusually attractive opportunity because of critical-mineral shortages, improved policy prospects, and the potential for government support and faster permitting.
Private Credit Stress Is Spreading
Grandich describes private-credit losses, job insecurity, and weaker consumer spending as additional strains that could feed into banks and the broader economy.
What AI and Robotics Do to the Jobs Picture
He doubts AI and robotics will preserve today's employment patterns, warning that some jobs have already disappeared and that the labor-market effects may deepen.
Above 6% on the 10-Year Treasury Means a Crisis Has Hit
Grandich says the 10-year Treasury yield moving above 6% would signal that a financial crisis has occurred, citing the bond market's scale and leveraged positioning.
The Day Japan Has to Choose Itself Over U.S. Bonds
He expects Japan to prioritize its own currency and interests over supporting U.S. Treasuries, making Japanese selling an important risk for higher U.S. yields.
No Hike in October, One in December
Grandich predicts no October rate hike but expects one in December, saying inflation risks and the path of least resistance for rates point upward.
Why He Sees a Major Food Crisis Risk
He warns that fertilizer shortages, fuel costs, and weather could raise food prices, while food-bank demand signals that many working households are already struggling.
The Asset That Survives a Government That Wants More
Grandich favors tax efficiency and gold as safeguards against declining confidence in paper assets, while rejecting predictions that the U.S. government will seize private wealth.
Why Copper Could Hit $7 Before 2027
He argues copper could reach $7 before 2027 because demand is growing while mine grades, political obstacles, and supply constraints limit production.
The Real Reason Miners Stay Cheap
Grandich says miners remain undervalued partly because U.S. advisers and investors lack familiarity with resource markets, although broader investor interest is beginning to grow.
Management Is the One Thing That Makes a Junior
He argues that companies building data centers and power infrastructure depend on mined materials, and sees Canada as increasingly competitive for mining investment.
Riverboat Pete’s Shopping List
Grandich says management quality is the key differentiator among junior miners, pointing to experienced leaders and strategic investment by major producers as signs of promise.
The Lesson That Cost Him Millions, Twice
He recommends diversified miner funds for less hands-on investors and identifies a Canadian copper-gold project as his largest investment, emphasizing its experienced team.
The Red Suit vs. the Angel
Grandich says he is waiting for weakness before buying uranium and other resource shares, favors long-term patience over short-term trading, and closes with lessons on caution, losses, and faith.
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