NFA Live! What is Bitcoin Doing?

The speakers argue that inflation is being driven by supply and investment-demand pressures—including Middle East oil conditions, data-center construction, and semiconductor demand—that the Federal Reserve cannot directly resolve. As a result, the market sees an almost even chance of two additional rate hikes, creating a meaningful near-term risk for risk assets, even as one speaker says 10-year yields of 5% to 7% could represent a return to more normal conditions rather than historically extreme levels.

The 10-year/3-year Treasury spread is presented as a recession warning signal, but the speaker cautions that its timing can be unreliable because a prior major inversion did not immediately precede a recession before the dot-com crash. That uncertainty is consistent with the separate view that Bitcoin could face a major fourth-quarter drawdown in a midterm year, potentially as a macro higher low rather than a new cycle low.

One speaker attributes Bitcoin's resilience to momentum, the 50-week moving average, and sustained ETF inflows that indicate spot demand rather than only short covering or leverage. However, Rob argues that Bitcoin's reaction to macro shocks has been inconsistent: after the February 2026 Iran event it moved from roughly $67,000 to $82,000 before falling to $58,000, while higher PCE later coincided with a decline rather than the expected inflation-driven strength.