Three years after October 7, with Aaron David Miller

Signs of weakening U.S. support for Israel include a House vote to eliminate $3.3 billion in annual aid that drew 103 Democratic votes and Gallup’s finding that more Americans sympathized with Palestinians than Israelis; Aziz Abu Sarra says Israel-Palestine has also become a major issue in U.S. congressional elections. Separately, a speaker says more Americans now have a negative view of Israel than at any earlier point, and a cited survey found that 91% of American Jews feel less safe than they did in 2023.

Miller says a change in Israel’s government might ease some of the toxicity in U.S.-Israel ties but may not restore Israel’s image or its lost benefit of the doubt; Bremmer notes that military, intelligence, and aid ties remain deeply integrated. Miller also argues that Netanyahu and Trump have undermined the relationship’s bipartisan foundation.

Miller describes Gaza’s postwar challenge as both a population and governance problem: roughly 2 million Palestinians are concentrated in 30% to 35% of the territory, while Israel and Hamas have irreconcilable visions for security, governance, and reconstruction. He says 5,000 Palestinian police who are supposed to be trained have not left Gaza, which he believes reflects Israel’s failure to assure them they could return.

Miller says Gaza’s humanitarian conditions have improved but food insecurity, inadequate medical access and shelter, disease, and limited potable water persist after three years of disrupted normal life. He also says Hamas retains political capacity through guns, humanitarian assistance, and the black market despite major degradation of its military capabilities, and warns that Gaza’s future looks grim without a fundamental leadership change.