Why Rubio Skipped Brussels: America’s Secret Ring Around Europe & How it will Impact Portfolios

Brent Johnson argues that the United States is moving away from the rules-based order toward an America First posture, citing Marco Rubio’s description of the postwar order as obsolete and the international system as broken. He says U.S.-China competition will continue through cooperation and antagonism, with Arctic trade routes, Russian military installations, submarine monitoring, and critical minerals and technology components making the region increasingly important.

Johnson describes Iceland as a potential partner for closer defense cooperation, while saying the United States has no intention of entering the country without its approval. He also raises the possibility—not a confirmed plan—that the United States could rely on alternative outposts such as the Azores, Lisbon, or Portugal if traditional European bases are less dependable, and points to Greece’s gas-hub role and $4 billion in F-35 and F-16 purchases as evidence of its strategic importance.

Johnson says the ICC can prosecute individuals, including non-member nationals for conduct on a participating country’s territory, while the United States has long opposed its authority over U.S. citizens; the court’s founding proposal passed 120–7, with the United States among the opposing votes. He also notes that the court has a roughly $200 million budget, receives no U.S. contribution, and gets almost half its funding from Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France combined.