PodcastKitcoDouglas Macgregor

Saudi Arabia Is “Going Out of Business,” Col. Douglas Macgregor Warns

The host cites Saudi Arabia’s large Patriot missile order and reports of dwindling interceptor stocks, alongside sharp disruptions to shipping and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Macgregor argues that U.S. military positions in the region are vulnerable and that Iran, China, and regional conflict pose strategic risks. He also warns of potential commodity, fuel, food, and refining constraints, while forecasting sharply higher commodity prices and gold at $10,000 by 2029.

Geopolitical RiskOilEnergy SecurityCommoditiesGoldNational Security

Preview · 14 more points in the app

Read the Full Summary

Key Takeaways

The host reports that Saudi Arabia signed for 730 Patriot missiles this year while regional officials say it is running low on interceptors; the host also cites a UN estimate that the Houthis’ force grew from about 30,000 fighters in 2015 to as many as 350,000. Macgregor says the Houthis have substantial capabilities and predicts that Saudi Arabia could be replaced by an enlarged Yemen construct, while expressing doubts that the House of Saud will survive.

Macgregor argues that the U.S. Navy lacks the equipment and operating model to secure the Strait of Hormuz, and that U.S. forces may need to leave exposed positions because of precision-guided weapons and Iranian missile threats to bases in Saudi Arabia. Separately, the host cites 24 ships hit near the strait in two weeks and oil flows down about 43% from before the war; Macgregor warns that a U.S. attack on Iran could prompt retaliation against Gulf oil infrastructure and desalination plants.

Macgregor argues that Iran is central to China’s long-term commercial strategy linking Central Asia with Russia and Europe, so Beijing will not abandon Tehran, though he says China does not seek to harm the United States. He also argues that sanctions are less effective against continental powers such as Iran, China, and Russia, and says Trump may eventually leave the region because the United States can no longer afford to stay.

GEO-POLITICS

Patriot Orders — The host reports that Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest buyer of American weapons, signed for 730 Patriot missiles this year. Regional officials say the kingdom is running low on interceptors, the host adds.

“Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest buyer of American weapons. This year it signed for 730 Patriot missiles.”—

Naval Vulnerabilities — Douglas Macgregor argues that the U.S. Navy is ill-suited to secure the Strait of Hormuz. He cites its conventional conflict model, newer Iranian technologies, and inadequate mine-detection and mine-retrieval equipment. He also argues that precision-guided weapons could destroy forward-deployed forces early in a crisis, so forces may need to leave regions to preserve the ability to fight their way back.

“The Navy can't do it. It's that simple. It's the wrong instrument. You know, this is a World War II construct designed for World War II style enemies…”—

Houthi Strength — The host cites a UN estimate that the Houthis’ fighter force grew from about 30,000 in 2015 to as many as 350,000. Macgregor says the group has developed substantial capabilities and that he sees no evidence it will be defeated soon.

“This comes back to the Houthis and I have to ask you, I mean, the UN says that the Houthis went from about 30,000 fighters in 2015 to as many…”—

ECONOMY

Pension Risks — Macgregor warns that older Americans’ wealth and reliance on pensions could leave them exposed if conditions worsen, saying those assets could vanish quickly. This is his risk assessment, not a confirmed forecast of pension losses.

“One of the things that you have trouble with in the country is getting people in my generation to understand just how bad it could get because they're very comfortable…”—

MARKETS

Hormuz Oil Flows — The host cites Financial Times reporting that 24 ships were hit near the Strait of Hormuz in two weeks, compared with 13 during March’s worst stretch. Ship tracking showed oil flows through the strait down about 43% from before the war, the host says; before the war, the strait carried about a fifth of the world’s oil.

“Colonel, the Strait of Hormuz carried obviously about a fifth of the world's oil before this war…”—

Resource Sovereignty — Macgregor argues that geopolitical uncertainty and U.S.-China policy concerns are driving investment in resource sovereignty and non-Chinese supply chains, contributing to a commodity supercycle. He identifies gold, copper, uranium, lithium, rare earths, and tungsten as areas of interest.

“Well, first of all, we see that everybody who's seen what's gone on in both Ukraine and, and the Middle East has opted for what I would call a dramatic…”—

Fuel Constraints — Macgregor argues that limited U.S. refining capacity undermines claims of oil self-sufficiency. He says the country has not built a refinery in 26 years and has limited access to diesel and gasoline. He warns conditions may worsen as the United States both exports and imports oil, while the host reports diesel prices exceeded $6 per gallon last month amid war damage to refineries in the Gulf and Russia.

“Well, it's going to get worse. I think that's pretty obvious. That that's indisputable…”—

FORECASTS

Commodity Outlook — Macgregor predicts commodity prices will rise dramatically and could keep climbing until a new global structure stabilizes, while allowing that gold may fall back somewhat. He calls the commodity supercycle difficult to reverse and warns that higher prices would be disastrous for the United States. He cites sovereign debt above $40 trillion, an annual deficit of $2 trillion, net interest payments above $1 trillion, and a proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget as evidence of fiscal strain.

“This is this is the beginning of a new super cycle in commodities. And the problem is that we cannot reverse it.”—

Seven Months Into the Iran War, and Oil Is the Weapon

Jeremy Saffron opens by noting Saudi Arabia's major Patriot missile purchase and reported shortages as attacks and shipping disruptions raise questions about oil's role in the conflict.

The Strike on Riyadh and the House of Saud's Survival

Macgregor says Turkey and Pakistan may offer limited protection but will not fight for Saudi Arabia; he questions whether the House of Saud can survive without outside money and forces.

Why the Old World Order Has Broken Down

Macgregor argues the U.S.-led unipolar order has collapsed, saying American military and economic dominance has faltered against Iran and Russia and resource self-reliance is accelerating.

A New Commodity Supercycle Has Begun

He forecasts a commodity supercycle driven by deglobalization and competition for secure supplies, and says Washington's attempt to reverse that shift will worsen it.

Why the Navy Can't Secure the Strait of Hormuz

Macgregor says the U.S. Navy cannot secure Hormuz with its outdated force structure, and warns that mines, missiles, and the Gulf's geography make intervention exceptionally dangerous.

How the Houthis Grew to as Many as 350,000 Fighters

He describes the Houthis as a capable, cohesive force with Iranian support, able to exploit modern technology and impose costs despite their comparatively limited resources.

Mining, Defense and the Push Away From China

Macgregor says conflict is pushing countries toward resource sovereignty and investment in non-Chinese mineral supply chains, including metals needed for defense and industry.

Why AI Data Centers Need So Much Copper

He estimates AI data centers require large quantities of copper per megawatt and says electrification and energy storage further intensify demand for copper and other minerals.

The Refining Problem Nobody Talks About

He warns that mineral availability is not enough: inadequate refining capacity, including for oil and critical materials, is a major constraint on supply and prices.

The Debt Math He Says "Can't Be Done"

Macgregor cites soaring U.S. debt, deficits, and interest costs to argue that the country cannot sustain a greatly expanded defense budget and prolonged wars.

Where Oil Goes If America Joins the Houthi Fight

He predicts joining the Houthi conflict would worsen oil-market disruptions, while U.S. refinery shortages and reliance on imports undermine claims of energy self-sufficiency.

Why He Says China Wins the Gulf

Macgregor says China seeks stability and will not abandon Iran, whose trade links matter to Beijing; he argues China is positioned to benefit from Gulf reconstruction.

The Food and Fertilizer Crisis Coming Next

He warns that disrupted supplies of oil, natural gas, sulfur, and fertilizer could trigger severe food shortages and famine in India and other regions.

Diesel Tops $6, and Washington Turns to Russia

Saffron cites diesel above six dollars per gallon and a U.S. deal to buy Russian fuel; Macgregor says delayed supply effects could worsen costs and food pressures.

Who's Winning the Sanctions War

Macgregor argues sanctions have harmed the United States more than major powers such as China, Russia, and Iran, and says Washington may ultimately withdraw from conflicts.

Why Gold Has Soared Since 1971

He contrasts declining U.S. living standards with gold's long-term rise since 1971, arguing commodities may climb further until a stable global order emerges.

Can Washington Get Out of the Gulf?

Macgregor says Trump may want to leave the Gulf but is constrained by debt and political choices; he anticipates more fighting before a U.S. withdrawal.

Rare Earths and Refining Are China's Real Leverage

He says rare-earth leverage comes from processing capacity, not simply mineral access, and warns that China leads because the United States lacks essential refineries.

A Third Carrier, the Midterms and the Iran Endgame

Macgregor doubts a third carrier signals a settled endgame, arguing Trump may be trapped into escalation even as political pressures and military deployments mount.

Strike Iran Again and the Gulf's Oil and Water Get Hit

He warns that renewed strikes on Iran could prompt attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure and desalination plants, creating prolonged scarcity and serious regional damage.

Why the Navy Is Stretched to the Breaking Point

Macgregor says the Navy is overstretched and vulnerable in forward positions, while arguing the United States needs stronger defense at home and along the Mexican border.

Is a Third Carrier a Show of Strength?

He says a third carrier is difficult to sustain far from logistical bases, as lost access to regional facilities leaves U.S. forces less welcome and less able to replenish.

Rapid Fire: Oil to $200, Gold to $10,000, Saudi Arabia's Future

In rapid-fire answers, Macgregor forecasts higher oil prices and gold at $10,000 by 2029, predicts Saudi Arabia may be replaced, and questions the House of Saud's survival.

Related Episodes

Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

Our Commentary · Request Removal