PodcastDavid Lin ReportJohn Feneck

‘Reminds Me Of 2008’: The Next Bust & Boom Nobody's Talking About | John Feneck

Feneck sees a long road to expanding U.S. mineral production, despite substantial funding, and argues that permitting and project timelines remain a constraint. He highlights tungsten's concentrated supply, limited market coverage, and potential demand from military spending, while emphasizing company and management due diligence. He also flags elevated consumer defaults, narrow equity leadership, seasonal volatility, and housing weakness as risks for investors.

Base MetalsCommoditiesSupply ChainsNational SecurityMarket BreadthConsumer Spending

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Key Takeaways

Feneck says China has withheld tungsten from Japan despite its requests, while China accounts for 81% of tungsten production and the U.S. has not produced the metal in 11 years; many new mines are not expected to enter production until 2029 or 2030. He also identifies tungsten and antimony as the metals most in demand if the U.S. rapidly rebuilds its ammunition stock, while saying North America is not doing enough to develop mines for either.

Feneck characterizes tungsten as under the radar, with no ETF tracker or futures market and about 20 publicly traded companies, compared with more than 100 for lithium. He recommends evaluating a company's production timeline and tungsten holdings alongside management quality, insider ownership, and how its shares are distributed among management, institutions, and retail investors.

Feneck says U.S. mineral production will take years to catch up with China: no mine had entered production in the 19 months since the executive order, and permitting progress at Paramount Gold was not evidence of production. He questions what the $112 billion directed toward the sector from November to May has accomplished and argues that larger $20 million-to-$50 million grants could help projects advance, though he says they would not be enough to close the overall gap quickly.

GEO-POLITICS

Tungsten Restrictions — Feneck argues that extending the U.S.-China truce to January 10 led investors to sell critical-mineral stocks, but tungsten is outside the agreement, which focuses on rare earths. He says China cut off Japan's tungsten access in June and July and has not supplied it despite Japan's requests. For that reason, he does not believe the tungsten trade is over.

“What's happened as a result of that truce being extended to January 10th of next year is that critical mineral stocks have really tanked here because people are starting to…”—

ECONOMY

Consumer Defaults — Feneck says credit card defaults are at an all-time high even as consumers keep spending, much of it with money they do not have. He expects spending to fall in a confirmed recession, but says that has not happened yet.

“I agree with you. If you look at credit card defaults, it's at an all-time high. So, people are still leveraged to the hilt…”—

Mining Timelines — Feneck says restarting U.S. mining takes time: projects must clear permitting and advance through a PA and PFS. He points to Paramount Gold, which began Fast 41 in May and was fast-tracked by January, as permitting progress—not evidence the project had reached production.

“Now we are. I would argue we are. and these things are getting restarted. To your point, you don't flip a switch and have production next year. There's a process…”—

U.S. Mineral Output — Feneck says catching up with China in mineral production will take years, not months. He says no mine had entered production in the 19 months since the executive order and that fast-tracking was moving more slowly than needed.

“So, how far behind is the US when it comes to mineral production relative to China? Even if the US were to prioritize this, when can they catch up?…”—

MARKETS

Narrow Leadership — Feneck says U.S. equity leadership is narrow, with the MAG 7 again leading. He warns that S&P 500 investors may have substantial technology exposure—potentially around 40%—that retirees may not want.

“So, you have very narrow leadership in these ETFs…”—

October Volatility — Feneck says October has historically ranked among the market's worst months—first or second worst, in his account. He argues investors should not be fully invested going into the elections given seasonal volatility.

“Well, I think you want to keep a larger percentage than cash because we are approaching volatility, right? Seasonal volatility in our market…”—

Real Estate Risk — Feneck says REK, a short fund on real estate stocks, began rising after Scott Bessent intervened in the bond market on August 19, as real estate stocks fell. He sees continued weakness into next year as a potential broader-market risk if people feel less wealthy.

“I would argue if you look at a chart of REK, which is the single short on real estate stocks, maybe you can insert that later into the interview, but…”—

Stock Market Crash Warning

Feneck says a sharp market decline remains a risk because leadership is narrow, technology weighs heavily in broad indexes, and the AI trade is crowded, though a selloff has not yet materialized.

Fed & Rising Yields

He links rising Treasury yields and the Fed's hawkish stance to investor anxiety, but says multiple additional rate hikes are unlikely and recent inflation readings should be watched.

How To Protect Wealth

Feneck recommends holding more cash ahead of seasonal volatility and political and Federal Reserve events, describing a 12–20% cash position as a way to lower portfolio risk.

Real Estate Warning Signs

He points to falling real-estate stocks, elevated Phoenix housing inventory, and record credit-card defaults as warning signs, while saying weaker home values could weigh on confidence and spending.

U.S.-China Minerals War

Feneck argues U.S.-China competition for critical minerals remains real despite a temporary truce, and says China’s leverage over concentrated mineral supply chains gives it strategic power.

Tungsten Supply Crisis

He describes tungsten as scarce and heavily concentrated in China and allied jurisdictions, with semiconductor and defense demand, limited market coverage, and no near-term U.S. production solution.

Critical Defense Metals

Feneck names tungsten, antimony, and other defense-linked materials as priorities, and discusses drone companies and technology as beneficiaries of military and civilian applications.

Global Military Spending

He expects countries to expand military spending as geopolitical tensions rise and trust in U.S. security commitments declines, supporting interest in defense metals and related technologies.

Can America Catch Up?

Feneck says rebuilding U.S. mining capacity will take years: permitting, feasibility work, and construction mean that restarting production cannot happen with a quick policy switch.

Government Mining Investments

He says federal fast-tracking has helped some projects, but argues larger government grants and sustained investment are needed to accelerate domestic mineral production and create jobs.

Tungsten Investment Outlook

Feneck sees tungsten as a potentially durable shortage rather than a passing commodity boom because there are few listed producers, no futures market, and no ETF tracking the metal.

Avoiding Mining Stock Traps

He advises investors to check a miner’s track record and actual tungsten assets, asking when production is realistic and whether the company is simply capitalizing on the national-security story.

Top Mining Stock Picks

Feneck discusses Western Star and Spartan as tungsten-focused holdings, citing their U.S. projects, early exploration work, and potential for higher-grade mineralization.

Mining Management Red Flags

He puts management ahead of a project in his screening process, recommending questions about insider ownership, share structure, institutional holders, and executives’ past conduct.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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