PodcastCommodity CultureDaniel Major

THESE Critical Metals Set to FLY as Supply Squeeze Accelerates: Daniel Major

Critical-mineral policy is broadening in the United States, while China retains significant control over rare-earth processing and market access. Copper and uranium face substantial supply constraints as demand rises, with disruptions, stockpiling, and contract expirations providing additional support in the near term. Botswana’s mining environment and projects including Semarule and Matsitama offer exploration potential, although key questions remain around scale, mineralogy, processing, and geological sources.

CommoditiesBase MetalsEnergy SecuritySupply ChainsGeopolitical RiskChina

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Key Takeaways

The United States expanded its critical-minerals list from 35 minerals in 2018 to 60 in 2025, adding copper as data centers and geopolitical priorities increase its strategic importance. China’s control of mining, rare-earth processing, and market access is reflected in reported 50% year-over-year lower exports and ex-China rare-earth prices three to five times higher than domestic Chinese prices.

Copper has near-term support from disruptions at Grasberg and Kamoto, lower DRC exports, and sulfuric-acid and water constraints in Chile, with tariff uncertainty and U.S. stockpiling adding further support. Longer term, demand of roughly 28 million tonnes already exceeds mine supply of about 22 million tonnes, and the gap could widen as electrification, data centers, grid modernization, and urbanization push demand toward 35 million tonnes by 2040.

Critical-mineral price inflation appears less significant for electric vehicles than for energy storage: the materials represent about 3% of an EV’s value, so even a threefold increase would change total value by less than 0.1%, while materials account for about 25% of energy-storage value and could create an impact of roughly 5%. This supports the episode’s broader view that electrification will drive demand across multiple commodities, not just one metal.

GEO-POLITICS

Mineral Expansion — The United States materially broadened its definition of critical minerals, expanding the list from 35 minerals in 2018 to 60 in 2025. Copper’s inclusion reflects data centers’ strategic importance and shifting geopolitical priorities.

“What I thought was interesting looking at the US one was in 2018 they had 35 minerals. In 2025, 60 minerals. So, it shows how the time has changed.”—

China’s Dominance — China’s dominance in critical metals extends from mining to downstream rare-earth processing and market access, with export tariffs and restrictions adding further control. Chinese critical-metals exports were reported to have fallen 50% year over year, while rare-earth prices outside China reached three to five times domestic Chinese prices.

“And I'm really you got to highlight that one by yesterday's announcement from Japan that exports from China on critical metals down 50% from a year previously…”—

MARKETS

Cost Exposure — Critical-mineral cost inflation has a relatively limited effect on an electric vehicle because these materials represent about 3% of its total value. Even a threefold increase would change the vehicle’s value by less than 0.1%. Energy storage is more exposed: materials account for about 25% of value, implying a potential impact of roughly 5%.

“So, if you look at a car, you know, it's a 3% of the total car in an EV car…”—

Copper Support — Copper’s near-term price resilience is supported by supply disruptions at Grasberg and Kamoto, reduced exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and sulfuric-acid and water constraints in Chile. Tariff uncertainty and U.S. stockpiling provide additional short-term support.

“You've had disruptions in direct supply, whether it's Grasberg, Kamotoa, export reductions out of the DRC, sulfuric acid supply and water issues in Chile have all put pressure on the…”—

Copper Supply Gap — Copper faces a widening structural supply gap, with current demand around 28 million tonnes versus roughly 22 million tonnes of mine supply. Demand could reach 35 million tonnes by 2040, while existing and planned projects may lift supply only to about 25 million tonnes by 2030. EVs, data centers, grid modernization, and urbanization are driving demand growth.

“I think the long-term growth for electricity in general is about 3.6% all the way out to 2040…”—

FORECASTS

Uranium Acceleration — Uranium spot prices are around $86 per pound, versus roughly $18 at the market bottom, while term contracts—which represent about 80% of the market—are near $96. If short-term uncovered demand emerges as existing contracts expire, the market could accelerate sharply.

“But as soon as that starts to be uncovered short term, which it will, then this is when this market will really kick off going forward.”—

Intro

Daniel Major says U.S. critical-mineral policy has expanded sharply, while geopolitical competition, tariffs, export quotas, and ex-China price premiums are accelerating non-Chinese supply efforts.

Critical Minerals Ex-China Production

Copper prices are supported by mine disruptions, DRC export reductions, tariffs, and U.S. stockpiling, while electricity demand creates a substantial long-term structural supply deficit.

Copper Headed Higher?

China controls most rare-earth processing and much of production, but high ex-China prices are encouraging alternative projects; heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium remain especially scarce.

China's Rare Earths Dominance

Major believes uranium remains early in a broad global demand cycle, with nuclear capacity, SMRs, and contracting needs rising faster than existing mines and project pipelines can supply.

Are We Still Early in Uranium?

Eastport Critical Metals owns a diversified Botswana-focused portfolio tied to electricity demand, including copper, rare earths, nickel, uranium, diamonds, and PGM exploration properties.

Overview of Eastport Critical Metals

The company’s priority projects are the large Matsitama copper ground, Semarule rare-earth project, and Selebi East exploration property, while Foley, Jwaneng, and Kang receive less immediate emphasis.

Flagship Projects

Matsitama contains widespread structurally controlled copper mineralization, and Eastport plans deeper drilling and renewed geophysics to test major northern anomalies and identify larger deposits.

Recent Drill Results at Copper Project

Recent Matsitama drilling confirmed historical mineralization and long copper intersections, validating Eastport’s structural model while directing attention toward underexplored, highly anomalous targets.

Advantages of Mining in Botswana

Botswana offers strong infrastructure, political stability, skilled personnel, transparent government engagement, and a mining-friendly environment as it seeks to diversify beyond diamonds.

Upcoming Catalysts for Eastport

Upcoming catalysts include Selebi, Matsitama, and Semarule results, with geophysics and targeting preceding drilling at several projects and continued news flow expected through 2026 and 2027.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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