'There's No Deposits Anywhere' - Why $7 Copper is Only the Beginning: Ian Harris

Harris describes copper's challenge as a structural shortage of viable deposits and development capacity, not simply inadequate current production: permitting can take about 14 years, discovery through permitting about 20 years, and solving the problem could require at least 20 years. Even historically high prices have not materially increased supply, while Antamina's billion-dollar expansion would add only about 70,000 tons annually.

Copper demand is being supported by several long-term forces, including electrification, electric vehicles, aging U.S. infrastructure, data-center construction, and broader digitalization. Harris believes this demand could remain resilient even if an AI or equity-market bubble bursts or a global recession occurs because governments and companies may continue pursuing AI and productivity investment.

The market's tightness is visible in both inventories and the limited scale of new projects: copper stocks that had appeared historically high represented only about 14 days of supply and fell sharply within roughly three months, while the growing deficit has not prompted a meaningful supply response. Harris estimates that addressing the shortfall would require roughly $250 billion of investment, excluding discovery spending.

The scale of deposits needed to change the industry is itself a constraint: Harris says major producers increasingly need deposits of at least one billion tons and prefer mine lives of 40 to 60 years, yet few such deposits are near the surface or outside major companies' control. This reinforces his view that copper's supply problem is a medium- to long-term issue rather than one that can be quickly solved through incremental expansions.