PodcastBenjamin CowenBen Cowen

NFA Live! Bond Yields Surge, Crypto Stalls, & is AI Overhyped?

The discussion weighs how AI could reshape work and expand access to professional services, while emphasizing that worker training and regulatory clarity may affect the benefits. On inflation and markets, speakers question a soft PCE reading, flag conflict and diesel prices as potential risks, and point to a divergence between struggling crypto and stocks at new highs. Ben forecasts that yields may be near a local peak and says upcoming inflation data could move crypto; he also sees restrictive policy as a possible advantage for Bitcoin over altcoins.

Artificial IntelligenceInterest RatesInflationCrypto MarketsBitcoinGeopolitical Risk

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Key Takeaways

Rob uses ATMs as an example of technology changing work rather than simply eliminating it: banks reduced staffing but could open branches more cheaply and shift tellers toward customer help. He sees AI as potentially extending professional services to more people, while Rob and Ben argue that training workers to use AI could help companies expand output and workers remain employable.

The speakers describe crypto's prospects as dependent on both policy conditions and regulation: Ben says crypto is highly responsive to liquidity and that a hot inflation report could reinforce higher-rate expectations, while Rob says stablecoin payments and tokenization could advance further with regulatory clarity or fewer regulatory barriers. Ben also argues that restrictive policy could favor Bitcoin over altcoins, though he does not consider an altcoin season impossible.

Inflation and rate signals remain contested: Ben questions whether a softer PCE report reflected easing pressure because the calculation changed, while Rob warns that continued conflict involving Iran and rising diesel prices could worsen inflation and prompt another Fed rate hike, possibly in December. Ben says the upcoming inflation report could move crypto, with a hot reading likely negative and a soft one potentially supportive.

TECHNOLOGY

ATM Effects — Rob says ATMs reduced bank staffing but also made it cheaper to open branches. They shifted tellers from counting cash toward helping customers. He presents this as technology changing tasks and operations, not simply eliminating jobs.

“First of all, became cheaper. ATMs cut the staff, which people are like, well, Rob, that's what it is. To cut staff, you lost jobs…”—

AI Service Access — Rob sees AI as a potential way to address Puerto Rico’s shortage of doctors and lawyers. It could let one professional serve multiple branches with less time and effort.

“In Puerto Rico, we have a big brain drain. A lot of the doctors, the lawyers, a lot of these people, they go to the mainland…”—

AI Worker Training — Rob argues that companies laying off employees amid AI adoption may regret not training them to use the technology to expand output. Ben adds that people who know how to use AI may be the ones taking jobs.

“But I think that you're going to see the ones that embrace it, especially the corporations, the corporations that are firing their people right now are going to regret it…”—

ECONOMY

PCE Revision — Ben says PCE was still rising and argues the report came in soft because its calculation was revised. He questions whether it signaled easing inflation pressure.

“Like PCE is still going up and the reason it came in soft was because they revised how it was calculated…”—

Inflation Risks — Rob argues that continued conflict involving Iran and rising diesel prices could worsen inflation and lead the Fed to raise rates again, possibly in December. He presents this as a conditional scenario, not a certain outcome.

“If if we see more of these of this war and a continuation in Iran and we start to see the price of diesel continue to go up and fluctuate…”—

MARKETS

Crypto-Stock Divergence — The host describes crypto as struggling while stocks continue to set new highs, highlighting a divergence between the two markets.

“So there's quite a lot of excitement there…”—

Metals and Yields — Ben says gold and silver typically weaken when rates and the dollar rise. He argues that metals bottoming and strengthening can signal that yields are topping.

“And as far as the markets, normally commodities like gold and silver, they go down when rates are going up, right?…”—

FORECASTS

Yield Peak — Ben expects a local top in yields before or around the midterms and expects the long end to top within about a month. He cites past patterns in which yields topped in October, rose around the midterms, then fell afterward. He says bonds, including TLT, may be close to a low; these are forecasts, not confirmed market turns.

“I think it ends. I think there will be a local top in yields at least. That probably will last for a while…”—

Inflation and Crypto — Ben says the upcoming inflation report could be a near-term catalyst for crypto. A hot reading would probably be negative by reinforcing expectations for higher rates, while a soft reading could help crypto. He also says near-term inflation could rise enough to stall things without producing a massive inflationary wave.

“I think that the thing next week that people will be watching is the inflation report, right? I think that that's going to come out next week…”—

Bond Yield Outlook

Ben expects yields to approach a local peak, linking the move to inflation concerns and suggesting metals may stabilize before risk assets respond.

Yields And Market Signals

Ben argues that bond yields may top soon and explains why rising yields have coincided with Bitcoin strength, while falling yields can signal growth fears.

Social Media Doom Loop

The hosts ask whether recommendation algorithms reinforce pessimism and whether technology's potential benefits deserve more attention.

ATMs And AI Jobs

Rob uses the history of ATMs to argue that technology can create jobs and expand services, while urging companies to train workers to use AI.

Escaping Echo Chambers

Ben recommends seeking out perspectives beyond one's usual online bubble, while the host notes that audiences and creators often reward negative stories over good news.

Crypto's October Catalysts

Rob says conflict, higher diesel prices, and renewed inflation could keep pressure on rates and crypto, and expects uncertainty to persist through the midterms.

Inflation And Altcoin Risk

Ben identifies the next inflation report as a potential crypto catalyst and argues restrictive monetary policy may favor Bitcoin over altcoins.

Index Funds And Timing

The speakers caution that waiting for a crash can mean missing gains, discuss regular investing, and emphasize staying invested through market downturns.

AI Tools In Practice

Rob describes using AI for practical work while withholding access to financial accounts, and Ben shares how he uses it for planning, travel, and market analysis.

AI Skills And Opportunity

Ben says people who learn to use AI may gain an employment advantage, and the panel briefly considers robotics as a possible next phase.

Robotics And The Future

The speakers joke about AI-powered robotics and close by reflecting on how people spend the time that AI may save.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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