PodcastMaggie LakeDale Pinkert

More Pain Ahead for the NASDAQ? With Dale Pinkert | Talking Markets

Dale Pinkert sees weakness in equities and semiconductors, with the dollar potentially topping and bond yields possibly falling further. He also points to risks and opportunities across European assets, agricultural markets, and strategic metals. His market outlook includes downside levels for major indexes, Tesla, copper, and cryptocurrencies, alongside a possible higher-low setup in Bitcoin.

EquitiesSemiconductorsTechnical AnalysisCurrenciesFixed IncomeCommodities

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Key Takeaways

Pinkert sees a possible dollar top, watching 101.80, then 101 and 100, and says Saudi Arabia’s financial and geopolitical strains could threaten the petrodollar if they contributed to an overthrow or revolution. In a bearish-dollar scenario, he favors the euro, citing levels of 1.12, 1.11 and 1.105.

After the dollar reached 103 following CPI and yields spiked, Pinkert said the S&P barely bounced even as yields relented; he also described the Magnificent 7 as breaking down and semiconductors as a failing rally. If his count is right, he expects another semiconductor downside wave and capitulation, with Nvidia around 190 and the SOX potentially taking out its low.

Pinkert noted that the 10-year yield’s 5.29 high was below the earlier 5.31–5.33 range and said yields could fall further, but he characterized a possible bond advance as a bear-market rally rather than the start of a major bond bull market. That outlook contrasts with the weak S&P bounce he observed even after yields relented.

Pinkert suggests European assets as a potentially contrary idea after the euro fell from 1.20 to 1.11, while acknowledging political problems and French sovereign-debt concerns. His cited euro levels of 1.12, 1.11 and 1.105 frame the currency levels he is watching if the dollar is bearish.

Pinkert argues that geopolitical disruption to supply chains could expose the risks of just-in-time inventories and create scarcity in food and agricultural markets. He cited possible entry levels of 620 for wheat, 470 for corn with risk at 440, and 1,240 for soybeans.

GEO-POLITICS

Saudi Political Risk — Dale Pinkert argues that financial strain and geopolitical problems for Saudi Arabia’s leadership could contribute to an overthrow or revolution, which he says would end the petrodollar. He sees this risk as supporting his view that the dollar may be topping.

“I think one fundamental situation and this would support my dollar topping thesis would be I think that the prince of Saudi Arabia is in big financial problems along with…”—

MARKETS

Weak Equity Bounce — Dale Pinkert called the session damaging: the dollar reached 103 after CPI and yields spiked, yet the S&P barely bounced even as yields eased. He also said the Magnificent 7 was breaking down and thought Apple was the only one of those stocks higher that day.

“you know I've been talking about for a while that I thought that we would go down into the election everything…”—

Semiconductor Weakness — Dale Pinkert described the semiconductor move as a failing rally and said SanDisk and Micron looked worse.

“Yeah like you know the semiconductors I've been talking about a failing rally in the semis. That's what this is. SanDisk and Micron look worse.”—

European Assets — Dale Pinkert suggests buying European assets as a potentially contrarian idea after the euro fell from 1.20 to 1.11. He acknowledged political issues and concerns about France’s sovereign debt.

“what's cheap would probably be with this break in the euro from 120 to 111 buying European assets which is interesting given all the political issues and concerns about France's…”—

FORECASTS

Yield Outlook — Pinkert noted that the 10-year yield’s high of 5.29 was below earlier levels of 5.31–5.33 and said yields could fall further. He characterized a possible bond advance as a bear-market rally, not the start of a major bond bull market.

“Yeah, there there's a 10ear. So, the high yield was 529 which is lower than the 531 533 and closed pretty negative…”—

Semiconductor Downside — Pinkert expects another downside wave and capitulation in semiconductors if his count is right. He was looking for Nvidia around 190, said the SOX could take out its low, and would lighten up if it bounced to 123.

“In semis we will have capitulation. We will. If I'm right on the count, that we have another wave to the downside. Nvidia, I was figuring about 190…”—

Copper Selloff — Pinkert expects copper to sell off with the broader market, potentially through year-end. He says holders may be glad to get out.

“I'm glad you brought that up. It's just starting. I mean, I'm, you know, you're not late…”—

– Cold Open: "Is There More Pain Ahead for the NASDAQ?"

Pinkert calls the session damaging for equities: the S&P barely recovered despite easing yields, tech and the Magnificent Seven weakened, and metals still face downside after recent gains.

– Reading the Bond Market's Reaction to a Hot CPI Print

After hot CPI, Treasury yields reversed lower without retesting their highs, while TLT held up relatively well; Pinkert expects the bond-market rally to continue, though he does not call it a new bull market.

– Policy Response or Just Price? The Bessent Auction Angle

Pinkert says Treasury Secretary Bessent could reduce long-term debt supply by canceling or changing auctions, and argues bonds may also benefit from a flight to quality as richly priced stocks weaken.

– Semiconductors: "A Classic, Textbook Failing Rally"

Pinkert describes semiconductors as a classic failing rally, pointing to weakness in Micron and SanDisk and warning of further losses, potentially including a waterfall decline.

– The Mag Seven's False Breakout, and Why Intel's $60 Isn't Crazy Anymore

He sees false breakouts in the Magnificent Seven and says Intel could fall toward $60, a target that now seems less far-fetched after its decline from around $120.

– Copper Turns Bearish: "It's Just Starting"

Pinkert says copper's decline is only beginning and expects it to sell off alongside equities, while broader damage in metals may take time to form a durable bottom.

– Gold and Silver: Why the Gold-Silver Ratio Keeps Him Out

He views a rising gold-silver ratio as hostile to precious metals and says that, although physical silver may reward long-term holders, leveraged exposure and miners remain unattractive.

– "It's All One Market": Reading Unrelated Charts Side by Side

Pinkert compares gold-miner and other charts to show that disparate assets can share the same bearish pattern, arguing that a broad correction may unfold while the dollar tops.

– The Dollar Hits Its Target — What Happens on the Pullback

The dollar reached Pinkert's 103 target, so he is no longer bullish; he expects possible choppy distribution and will watch support levels on a pullback before deciding whether a major top is forming.

– The Euro/Cable Flip, and Why Cheap European Assets Might Be the Trade

Pinkert sees a euro turn developing and expects currency leadership to shift, while Maggie notes that dollar weakness could redirect capital toward cheaper European assets despite political and sovereign-debt risks.

– A Warning on Tesla: Three Failed Breakouts and a Confirmed Low

Tesla has failed at resistance three times, and Pinkert warns that its confirmed low may not hold; he sees a possible decline toward $250–$260 unless it closes back above $385.

– Energy Still Looks Fine — Then a Speculative Risk: Saudi Arabia and the Petrodollar

Pinkert says crude and energy still look relatively healthy, but warns that Saudi Arabia's financial and political strains could threaten the petrodollar; Maggie adds regional security concerns around the Houthis.

– Bitcoin and Ethereum: Where He'd Look to Buy a Pullback

Bitcoin may fall another $10,000, but Pinkert sees a possible higher low near $70,000 as a buy setup; he also identifies about $2,100 as a possible Ethereum entry and urges patient cash reserves.

– "Not the Crash to 5,000" — But a Rare NASDAQ "Reversal Month" Signal

Pinkert rejects a crash to 5,000 in the S&P 500 but expects more downside, citing index support levels and a rare Nasdaq reversal-month signal that could warn of a major turn.

– SOX Targets and the Capitulation Language He's Still Waiting to Hear

He expects further semiconductor weakness, says SOX could retest and break its lows, and advises reducing exposure on rebounds; he is waiting for investors to express capitulation before calling a bottom.

– Silver Miners, and Why He's "Keeping Powder Dry"

Pinkert expects gold and silver miners to fall further, potentially into the 60s for GDX, before he becomes a buyer; he emphasizes scaling in patiently rather than committing all at once.

– Platinum, Palladium, and Why Scarcity Is Now a National-Security Issue

Pinkert favors platinum and palladium for their strategic importance, citing concentrated supply in Russia and South Africa and growing concerns about resource scarcity and national security.

– Grains: Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans After Their Pullbacks

Pinkert sees potential in grains after their pullbacks: he likes wheat and expects a return toward $8, views corn as needing more work, and says soybeans have held up best.

– Closing: Bitcoin's 50% Retracement, and "Let's Play Two"

In the closing exchange, Pinkert says Bitcoin's 50% retracement could offer a bullish entry if support holds; Maggie underscores patience and keeping powder dry before their next market discussion.

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Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

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