Matt Hougan: The New Bull Market Has Officially Begun (The June Bottom)
Matt Hougan argues that crypto bottomed in June and is entering a new long-term bull-market cycle, supported by regulatory improvements, institutional investment, revenue, tokenization, and AI. He expects significant crypto ETF inflows in Q4 as traditional investors begin allocating, with wealth advisors at large firms providing the next push of capital. He also sees a more selective market emerging, while a NEAR speaker discusses changes to emissions and a proposal to reduce inflation from 2.5% to 1.6% over two years.
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Read the Full SummaryKey Takeaways
Matt Hougan says the top 20 crypto assets had about 130% dispersion between the best and worst performers over the prior 30 days, which he views as evidence of a healthier, fundamentally driven market. He expects that differentiated bull market to reward asset-specific progress and punish failures, with some zombie chains potentially falling out of attention.
Matt Hougan argues that rewarding projects for delivering value to token holders can encourage other projects to improve their positioning, potentially creating a virtuous circle. He says buyback discussions for NEAR and other token economies should focus on long-term value accrual while leaving open which mechanism achieves it.
NEAR reduced inflation from 5% to 2.5% by halving emissions on October 28 of the prior year, and a governance-forum proposal would lower it further to 1.6% over two years. A NEAR speaker says tokenomics must address both demand and supply to seek equilibrium against dollars, Bitcoin, and other ecosystem assets, and described that holistic approach as contributing to NEAR's outperformance at the time.
MARKETS
“If you look at something like the last 30 days, there's about 130% dispersion between the best and worst performing of the top 20 crypto assets…”—
“But the other thing that's really nice about this idiosyncratic driver thing, it's actually sort of reflexively good for crypto because other projects see projects being rewarded for doing the…”—
“and we look at this journey really started a year ago, right? Well, October 28th last year, we halved emissions on the network from 5% inflation to 2.5% inflation.”—
FORECASTS
“Yeah, I think look, I do think we bottomed in June, and I think we're in a new bull market cycle…”—
“Institutional capital follows on because they move slower…”—
Intro
Matt Hougan says crypto bottomed in June and has entered a new bull-market cycle, citing better regulation, institutional investment, crypto revenue, tokenization, and AI.
Bottomed In June Bull Market Started
Hougan points to roughly 130% performance dispersion among the top 20 crypto assets as evidence that markets are rewarding project-specific fundamentals rather than indiscriminate momentum.
130% Dispersion In Top 20 Assets
The speakers argue that competition and market rewards are encouraging projects to improve tokenomics and return more value to token holders, with Hyperliquid serving as an influential example.
Tokenomics Improving By Jealousy Of Hyperliquid
The NEAR discussion covers its existing Intent-side buybacks and the plan to expand monetization and value accrual as products demonstrate scale and fit.
NEAR Fee Switch And Buyback Path
A NEAR representative describes the debate over buybacks, token burns, and a proposed protocol balance sheet, emphasizing that buybacks need not automatically mean burning tokens.
NEAR Inflation Dropping 2.5% To 1.6%
The NEAR ecosystem has proposed reducing inflation from 2.5% to 1.6% over two years, pairing supply-side changes with demand and value-accrual strategies.
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Important Disclaimers
Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.
AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.
No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.
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