PodcastBanklessAustin Barack

Crypto’s Next Winners Won’t Be Blockchains

The discussion focuses on crypto applications that combine AI, tokenized compute, and growing user or transaction demand, with Venice presented as a leading example. The guest favors projects that pair rapid growth with reasonable valuations, highlighting potential in Venice, Pump, Hyperliquid, Etherfi, and Solana while expecting revenue to shift toward applications. His forecasts include a Venice token target of about $43.90, higher projected burns and revenue in 2027, and further opportunities for liquid tokens if Bitcoin's move toward $80,000 marks the start of a bull market.

Preview · 21 more points in the app

Read the Full Summary

Key Takeaways

The guest sees crypto-AI and tokenized 24/7 trading as particularly attractive intersections, with Venice combining an off-chain consumer AI business, an on-chain VVV token, and tokenized-compute utility. Venice's Mines product extends that thesis by letting developers build structured AI applications on top of existing models, although its revenue potential remains uncertain.

Crypto is described as moving toward multimodel routing, with OpenRouter serving the developer-tooling market and Venice offering a consumer-facing version. That architecture supports Venice's broader bullish case, which assumes more than one million active users from roughly four million historical users and product distribution through social and messaging communities.

Venice's token economics are tied to business activity: revenue and free cash flow fund VVV buybacks and burns, while new subscriptions and API-credit purchases currently create additional burn activity. Locking VVV can mint DEM tokenized compute worth about one dollar per day of inference, but the speakers note that value capture is not guaranteed without the Clarity Act.

The guest's realistic Venice model projects annualized revenue rising from about $107 million to $336 million in 2027 and annualized burns increasing from roughly $8.3 million to $70 million. On that basis, the model targets approximately $43.90 for VVV versus about $16 at the time discussed, though this remains the guest's scenario rather than a settled outcome.

The guest favors crypto projects that pair rapid growth with reasonable valuations, particularly when cyclical capital flows create oversold pricing, and says his allocation moved from roughly 50% liquid and 50% venture in the first three quarters of 2024 to approximately 95% liquid. He attributes part of that shift to a bear market that helped identify five to ten compelling tokens.

TECHNOLOGY

Crypto-AI Themes — The guest says the two market segments he finds most interesting are the intersection of crypto and AI, and 24/7 trading with tokenization.

“At Relayer, we do liquid and venture. But, you know, leaning quite a bit more to liquid recently because I think that's where there's more opportunities…”—

Venice Architecture — Venice combines an off-chain consumer AI business with an on-chain token that benefits from burns and provides tokenized-compute utility.

“And I think Venice has actually created one of the most elegant balances of token and equity where this is an off-chain business, right?…”—

MARKETS

Growth and Value — The guest looks for crypto projects that combine rapid growth with reasonable valuations, especially when cyclical capital flows create periods of oversold pricing.

“But there's certain themes that that I think have found replicatable success and those are being at the intersection of growth and value…”—

Liquid Allocation — The guest says his allocation shifted from roughly 50% liquid and 50% venture during the first three quarters of 2024 to approximately 95% liquid. A bear market helped identify five to ten compelling tokens.

“So, I would say maybe like the first three quarters of the year of 2024 when I was live with the fund, I would say it was pretty 50/50…”—

Venice Users — The bullish case for Venice assumes more than one million active users, compared with roughly four million historical users. Power users could distribute products through social and messaging communities.

“but I think the bull case is they have 4 million historical users…”—

FORECASTS

Venice Price Target — The guest's realistic-scenario model targets Venice's token at about $43.90, versus approximately $16 at the time discussed.

“In my opinion that Venice, it is my opinion that Venice's token is materially underpriced at $1 billion FDV. I think the price is a little bit higher now today…”—

Venice Burn Model — The model projects Venice's annualized revenue rising from about $107 million to $336 million in 2027. Annualized burns are projected to rise from about $8.3 million to $70 million.

“So you know right now as of you know August they are run rating at an in my estimate at 107 million of annualized revenue and at 8…”—

Finding Growth and Value in Crypto

Austin explains Relayer Capital’s preference for liquid crypto assets at the intersection of rapid growth, reasonable valuation, crypto-AI, tokenization, and continuous trading.

Why Liquid Tokens Are Winning His Attention

He says liquid tokens now dominate his attention because the bear market exposed a smaller group of fundamentally strong, attractively priced projects, including Athena and Pendle.

How Austin Values Venice and VVV

Austin builds a Venice valuation from subscriptions, credit purchases, gross margins, operating costs, token burns, and projected 2027 revenue and buybacks, reaching a $43.90 target.

The Biggest Bet in the Venice Model

The largest valuation assumption is Mines, but Austin argues its projected contribution is supported by Venice’s rapid credit-revenue growth and the team’s demonstrated execution.

Can Venice Balance Growth and Token Value?

Austin and the host debate whether Venice’s growth model genuinely balances reinvestment with VVV value capture through programmatic burns and tokenized compute utility.

Venice Growth and the OpenRouter Signal

Venice’s growth has exceeded expectations, while OpenRouter’s valuation validates consumer demand for multimodel access and supports a higher potential multiple for Venice.

Can Fundamental Tokens Outperform the Crypto Cycle?

Fundamental tokens can outperform independently through business growth and value return, while Bitcoin-led liquidity and renewed crypto flows could provide an additional tailwind.

Pump, Hyperliquid and EtherFi

Austin favors Pump as an inexpensive buyback asset, Hyperliquid as a leading venue for onchain finance and real-world markets, and Etherfi as an unusually capable team.

EtherFi’s Shift Into a Neo Brokerage

Etherfi has evolved from liquid restaking into a lean onchain neobank and neo brokerage, with credit-card growth, borrowing revenue, tokenized assets, and buybacks driving its thesis.

Why the Market Discounts Pump

Pump’s low valuation reflects doubts about memecoin revenue durability, user unfamiliarity, and token-rights uncertainty, though Austin believes its recurring activity and buybacks are increasingly recognized.

The Next Era of Crypto

The next crypto era should favor applications, money, and real usage over new blockchains, with Venice, Hyperliquid, Pump, Etherfi, Bitcoin, Zcash, and Solana positioned as notable examples.

Related Episodes

Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

Our Commentary · Request Removal