VideoBenjamin CowenBenjamin Cowen

Bitcoin Extreme Uncertainty

Benjamin Cowen describes Bitcoin as facing unusually high uncertainty, with bullish technical signals and historical cycle patterns competing with risks of a failed breakout and further downside. He weighs rate policy, Treasury yields, inflation, recession signals, and economic uncertainty as potential influences on Bitcoin and broader markets, while emphasizing that historical comparisons are not guarantees. He also examines Bitcoin's performance relative to gold and silver, and says the expected altcoin season failed to materialize as Bitcoin entered a bear market.

BitcoinTechnical AnalysisMarket VolatilityInterest RatesInflationPrecious Metals

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Key Takeaways

Cowen sees Bitcoin at a near-term technical decision point: its golden cross, position above the 50-week moving average, and bullish RSI and MACD support the bullish case, while he says a hold of the 50-day moving average could bring new local highs and a failure could send Bitcoin back toward the range bottom. He cautions that bullish and bearish forces conflict, so a move above $87,000 could still prove to be a fake breakout.

Cowen uses prior cycles to frame Bitcoin's timing without treating them as a reliable countdown: it bottomed around days 1,432 and 1,436 in the previous two cycles, while the current cycle was at day 1,425, and it typically rallied sharply after crossing the 50-week moving average following a midterm-year bear market. His 2018 comparison informed an expected low near $57,000, but the subsequent rally exceeding the prior high made him less certain that the earlier pattern would repeat.

Cowen warns that a weekly loss of $83,000 after one or two weeks of closes could undermine Bitcoin's breakout and unwind quickly, as he says happened after false breakouts in 2015 and 2020. He also describes a possible—not base-case—path in which a failed breakout adds selling pressure, Bitcoin falls to $60,000, rebounds, and then declines again, potentially into 2027.

Cowen's historical rate-hike comparisons leave room for further Bitcoin weakness rather than establishing a definite outcome: Bitcoin fell about 20% after a 2015 rate hike despite its low already being in, and in two September midterm-year cases it was flat for roughly 40–50 days before falling around day 50. He contrasts the current rising-rate backdrop with the falling rates that preceded Bitcoin's 2019 breakout, and says the S&P's historical post-hike decline—averaging a bottom around day 45 and a retest near day 70—helped inform his expectation of a Q4 decline that could contribute to a Bitcoin low.

BITCOIN

Conflicting Signals — Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin faces unusually high uncertainty, with bullish and bearish forces pulling in opposite directions. He sees a near-term decision point: Bitcoin could make a new local high above $87,000 soon, or a fake breakout could be followed by technical indicators breaking down.

“And today, I think we find ourselves in a similar situation…”—

Bullish Indicators — Cowen says bulls can cite Bitcoin's golden cross, its position above the 50-week moving average, and crossings in the supply-in-profit-or-loss indicator as evidence of a bull market. He also calls RSI and MACD bullish, but says on-chain indicators have not reset. In 2019, a recession arrived after a rally, and on-chain indicators were triggered later.

“And one of the simplest things that they can point to is the fact that Bitcoin had a golden cross, right?…”—

50-Week Pattern — Cowen says Bitcoin has typically rallied sharply after crossing the 50-week moving average following a midterm-year bear market, rather than pausing to retest it. He identifies 2019 as an exception, when Bitcoin rose slowly before a recession arrived.

“Because normally when Bitcoin breaks through the 50we moving average after a midterm year bare market, it explodes higher, right?…”—

CRYPTO-MARKET

Altcoin Season — Cowen says the anticipated altcoin season did not occur because Bitcoin's bear market began during the usual Q4 post-halving-year window. He argues that without the bear market, Bitcoin could have rallied toward $200,000 and enabled a rotation into riskier altcoins.

“And the reason it never happened is because when it would normally occur in Q4, right, of the post-halving year, when it would normally occur, the bare market for Bitcoin…”—

Market-Cap Rebound — Cowen says total crypto market capitalization was repeating a pattern seen after the May high: after sweeping the low and closing below it, the market rallied for three to four days. The current move was on day two of that rally. He sees a decision point approaching and cautions that the rally could last only about a week before another extended consolidation.

“Look at total market cap. Look at what it did after the May high. It came down, swept it, swept it there. Right? You see, same thing…”—

MACRO

Fed Balance Sheet — Cowen presents the bearish argument that Bitcoin's earlier rally to those levels followed Federal Reserve balance-sheet expansion after the crisis, while the balance sheet is not expanding now. He notes that the earlier expansion required a crisis and says it is unknown what would have happened without one.

“And if you're a bear, you're going to say, well, hold on a second…”—

Bitcoin After Hikes — Cowen notes that Bitcoin rose briefly and then fell after the March 2022 rate hike; in 2015, the low was already in, but Bitcoin still dropped about 20% after a hike. In the two September midterm-year cases he examines, Bitcoin was flat for roughly 40–50 days before falling around day 50. He says a 20% decline following the 2022 pattern would still leave a higher low; these are historical comparisons, not guarantees.

“But the bears could simply say, look, when the Fed raised rates in the past, right?…”—

Rate Backdrops — Cowen contrasts Bitcoin's 2019 breakout, which followed interest rates falling to the floor, with the current period of rising rates. He sees a similar channel pattern but says the opposite policy backdrop makes the comparison less straightforward.

“I know it's kind of a weird thing to do, but if you look at what Bitcoin was doing in 2019 through that digestion phase, it was basically in a…”—

RELATIVE-VALUE

Gold-Bitcoin Divergence — Cowen says gold bottomed around yield peaks in 2018 and 2022, while Bitcoin bottomed as yields were declining. He cites this divergence as part of the bearish case for Bitcoin.

“If you look at gold for instance if you look at gold you can see that in 2018 or sorry in 2022 you know it bottomed in the October to…”—

S&P Relative Valuation — Cowen says the S&P-to-M2 chart led him to anticipate a 20% drop based on a similar move in the 1990s, and that the decline unfolded as he expected. He presents this as a historical comparison, not evidence that the pattern must recur.

“Because if you look at the S&P divided by M2, when we reach this level, I said, "All right, guys, it's time for a 20% drop."…”—

INTRO Bitcoin Extreme Uncertainty 10/16/26

Cowen frames Bitcoin as unusually uncertain, with credible bullish technical signals competing against macroeconomic risks, and argues that investors should recognize neither side can know the outcome with certainty.

The technical bull case for Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s golden cross, position above key moving averages, RSI, and historical cycle patterns support a bullish interpretation, although the breakout and cycle comparisons do not settle the question.

The bear case: liquidity and capitulation

Cowen contrasts the 2019-style bullish case with concerns that liquidity has not expanded and on-chain valuation measures have not reset, while noting that recession and rate-policy comparisons cut both ways.

Rate hikes and historical market reactions

Historical market reactions after rate hikes suggest Bitcoin and the S&P often struggle after an initial holding period, but the limited examples and varied outcomes make that pattern a risk rather than a certainty.

The critical 83K fakeout scenario

A weekly close below roughly $83,000 could undermine the breakout and trigger a rapid unwind; Cowen says a convincing fakeout may be more consequential than a brief decline to a new low.

Yields, growth fears, and Bitcoin risk

Cowen warns that falling Treasury yields could reflect growth fears, while Fed decisions and economic weakness may pressure Bitcoin; recession indicators remain mixed and an AI-led S&P downturn is a possible but unconfirmed risk.

Recession risk and the AI-driven S&P

Cowen balances bullish Bitcoin charts against macro uncertainty, including inflation, yields, and recession concerns, and urges viewers to watch key closes because either a breakout or a breakdown could resolve quickly.

Balancing the bullish charts with macro risks

Bitcoin appears to have bottomed relative to silver in Cowen’s view, but its valuation against gold may still fall; he uses the 1974 metals pattern to explain how the two ratios could diverge.

Bitcoin valuations versus silver and gold

Cowen says Bitcoin’s next move depends on whether chart levels hold, laying out three paths and favoring either a rebound or a new low over a higher-low fakeout that could prolong the downturn.

Final scenarios and what to watch next

Cowen concludes that the competing scenarios remain uncertain, thanks viewers, and invites them to the Investing Through the Cycles conference while acknowledging that his market calls can be wrong.

OUTRO

Cowen closes by encouraging viewers to subscribe and return for the next episode.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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