Xi meets Trump: What next for China?

The US-China trade truce was extended only from November 10 to January 10, with Evans-Pritchard saying the short window gives the US time to monitor declining Chinese rare-earth exports despite China’s commitments. He considers a further extension the most likely outcome, but the roughly $30 billion of goods per direction identified for possible tariff cuts is small relative to bilateral trade, and the 200 Boeing aircraft purchase remains under negotiation amid Chinese concerns about future access to engines, parts, and maintenance.

China’s control of about 90% of refined rare-earth production illustrates the strategic leverage behind a relationship that Evans-Pritchard says has shifted toward vulnerabilities in rare earths, aerospace, and batteries. He says both countries are using relative stability to buy time to reduce dependence on the other, while warning that China’s use of rare-earth controls to pressure the US could put the truce at risk and create miscalculation.

AI cooperation may be limited to safety measures such as notifying each other about AI-related incidents, while competition for leadership, standards, and foreign markets continues. That contest fits the broader strategic decoupling described in the episode: the US restricts AI semiconductor exports to China, and China is experimenting with export controls on AI models.