Why Power Trading Is 10X Crazier Than Crypto ft. Cory Paddock | Open Interest | Ep.24
The host and Cory Paddock discuss why power markets are opaque, physically constrained, and far more volatile than crypto, with transmission limits and grid reliability shaping prices and trading risk. Paddock also describes GBE's forecasting and training processes, and sees electricity demand rising over the next decade as data centers, vehicle electrification, and electrification of heat and buildings expand. He expects the supply-demand imbalance to resolve over the coming years, though the timing is uncertain and cycles of oversupply and undersupply remain likely.
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Read the Full SummaryKey Takeaways
Paddock says power-market trading requires substantial firm-specific context, so neither a novice with capital nor access to LLMs alone is enough to trade successfully. GBE once expected new analysts to need roughly 16–18 months, including a full market cycle, to make calls, though recent training cases have been condensed to six to eight months.
The host describes U.S. power markets as opaque and less populated than equity markets, while Paddock argues that this limited accessibility helps make them alpha-rich for proprietary traders. He also says power-market design must reconcile physical power flows, production economics, and reliability priorities.
North America’s western, eastern, and Texas interconnections operate largely as separate grids, with few links between them; within the Eastern Interconnect, Paddock calls PJM the largest and most liquid market. He says the PJM West Hub combines nodes in western Pennsylvania and around Washington, DC, and roughly represents prices across PJM; he suggests the contracts’ mix of skill and chance may contribute to their trading appeal.
PJM’s balance-of-day product averages five-minute node prices from hour 8 through hour 23 on business days, so prices become known as the day progresses while remaining unknowns can leave room for intraday volatility. ElectronX’s individual-hour futures could attract more participants and give load and renewable-energy businesses more tailored hedges than trading an entire strip.
TECHNOLOGY
“And now we're in a period where these young people under 25 and what they can do with LLMs is extraordinary…”—
MARKETS
“Firstly, although power markets are very niche, they are opaque and they don't have as many market participants as, for example, the US equity markets have.”—
“for system operators to maintain system reliability and to do so to minimize production cost…”—
“And grid reliability means that you know you have to balance that grid and the load pretty much continuously otherwise you have blackouts instantaneously and 24/7 365. Yeah exactly…”—
FORECASTS
“Moreover, electricity is central to all of our everyday lives…”—
“So there's definitely been this mismatch of investment and load increase. and those don't necessarily resolve in a matter of months. I think they will resolve over the coming years…”—
Knowing when to walk away from a losing trade
Moritz introduces the discipline of accepting losses and walking away rather than rationalizing a trade that is no longer working.
Introducing Cory Paddock and GBE Energy
Moritz introduces Cory Paddock, GBE Energy’s co-founder, and explains the firm’s PJM-focused power trading business and its shift toward training emerging traders.
How US power markets actually work
Paddock explains that US power markets combine physics and economics, with grid operators prioritizing reliability while balancing generation, cost, and changing fuel sources.
PJM and the changing US electricity mix
Paddock describes PJM’s broad territory and fuel mix, including coal’s decline as inexpensive shale gas expanded and wind and solar were added.
Why North America effectively has three separate power grids
Paddock explains that North America consists of three largely separate interconnections: the Western grid, the Eastern grid, and Texas’s ERCOT system.
What a power trader actually trades
GBE trades mostly PJM West Hub futures and finer-grained day-ahead and intraday products, where prices remain uncertain even as delivery approaches.
Why electricity trading never really stops
Paddock says physical power scheduling runs continuously, while GBE can carry positions into delivery despite the exchange’s daily close and maintenance window.
Finding an edge through supply, demand and weather
GBE’s trading process starts with detailed forecasts of regional demand, generation availability, and transmission limits, using internal models, vendors, public data, and weather expertise.
Why power markets remain so attractive to traders
Paddock finds power trading unusually compelling because volatility allows strong fundamental views to register quickly, while grid needs ultimately have to be met.
What “10 times crypto” volatility looks like
Paddock characterizes power’s rapid price swings as roughly ten times crypto’s volatility and warns that short positions can face exceptional slippage and settlement risk.
The four stages of becoming a power trader
Paddock teaches four stages of power trading: persistent longing, persistent shorting, avoiding extreme upside days, and learning to short routinely while going long on the right tail-risk days.
Conviction, sizing and getting comfortable with being uncomfortable
The biggest opportunities require recognizing an exceptional day early, sizing with conviction, and tolerating mark-to-market losses while the market initially disagrees.
The trades that helped create GBE Energy
Paddock recounts paradigm-shifting PJM trades that generated much of GBE’s startup capital, including a summer when six days produced most of the year’s profits.
What a painful losing trade taught Cory
A painful short trade against a transmission constraint taught Paddock to challenge his own story, cut losing positions sooner, and avoid stubbornly fighting a bad day.
Why GBE changed the way it recruits traders
GBE moved from hiring experienced traders to developing younger talent, inspired by a partner firm and a desire to pass along tacit market knowledge.
What Cory looks for in aspiring traders
Paddock seeks recruits with a deep desire to trade, shown through activities such as personal trading, modeling, poker, sports betting, and taking calculated risks.
How quickly can someone learn to trade power?
GBE initially expected training to take more than a year, but recent recruits have become ready to deploy capital after roughly six to eight months.
AI, data centers and the future of electricity markets
Paddock expects electricity demand to rise with data centers, electric vehicles, and building electrification, while warning that supply-demand cycles and fragmented market designs will persist.
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