How a Sardine Gets From the Ocean to a Can

PodcastOdd LotsBecca MillsteinAug 7

The episode examines how sardine scarcity is reshaping fish substitution, sourcing, pricing, and premium canned-fish demand. FishWife's growth highlights the constraints of European cannery capacity, minimum production runs, volatile forecasting, and the limited number of U.S. canneries. The guest links Morocco's 46% catch decline more to warming waters and other climate-related factors than overfishing, while noting that temporary closures could help depleted fisheries recover over three to five years.

Supply Chains Commodities Market Volatility

Preview · 19 more points in the app

Read the Full Summary

Key Takeaways

Morocco’s sardine catch fell about 46% in 2023 after the country, which the host says supplies roughly half of the world’s sardines, banned frozen sardine exports. The resulting supply squeeze drove consumers toward mackerel, tuna, salmon, and trout, pushed FishWife’s sardine sales to four or five times prior velocities, and is expected to increase prices as the company’s two supplying fisheries become more competitive.

Canned fish has moved beyond a commodity image into a premium category, with the guest attributing roughly 10% year-over-year pandemic-era growth to health benefits, convenience, shelf stability, food personalities, and social media. FishWife supports that positioning through high-quality products from multigenerational European family-owned canneries, while retail—not its roughly 20% direct-to-consumer business—provides the volume economics.

FishWife used an attractive U.S. market and underutilized Spanish and Portuguese canneries as the foundation for expansion: many partner facilities were running only one or two shifts five days a week, while affluent American customers were willing to pay for premium products. In 2023, the company redesigned its supply chain around canneries capable of producing 80 million to 100 million cans annually and subsequently scaled rapidly.

MARKETS

Fish Substitution — As sardines become harder to find, consumers are switching among sardines, mackerel, tuna, salmon, and trout. The guest says she does not have strong data to quantify the shift.

“Yes. They do…”—

Chinese Processing — Some fish caught in the United States, including Alaskan salmon, is sent to China for processing before being sold back into the United States.

“It's sold in The United States, but 1st it takes a detour to China for processing. That's right…”—

Moroccan Ban — Morocco, which the host says exports roughly half of the world's sardine supply, imposed a ban on frozen sardine exports. The guest says much of Morocco's raw material had supplied Spanish canneries, while canned sardine exports remained permitted.

“And the big news right now is that Morocco, which apparently exports something like 50% of the world's sardine supply, has imposed a ban on sardine exports because of, again…”—

FORECASTS

Fishery Recovery — The guest says temporary fishing-season closures lasting roughly three to five years can allow depleted fisheries to repopulate and potentially regain sustainable certification. She presents this as a possible management outcome, not a certainty for every fishery.

“We need to shut down the fishing season and allow the fishery to repopulate itself…”—

Sardine Shortage Setup

The hosts introduce sardines, premium canned fish, Morocco's export restrictions, and FishWife founder Becca Milstein as their guide to the industry.

FishWife Brand Origins

Milstein explains how Spanish and Portuguese food culture, pandemic habits, and premium branding inspired FishWife's American canned-fish business.

Anchovy Supply Chain

The guest traces Cantabrian anchovies from purse-seine fishing and auction through lengthy salt curing, packing, and unusually short shelf life.

European Cannery Capacity

FishWife found willing European cannery partners because American demand was attractive and many family-owned facilities still had unused production capacity.

Scaling Production Runs

Milstein describes FishWife's early micro-cannery orders, stockouts, minimum production runs, and the forecasting challenges of scaling a long-lead supply chain.

U.S. Cannery Decline

The speakers connect the disappearance of most American canneries to regulation, depleted fisheries, and cheaper Asian processing capacity.

Sardine Demand Surge

FishWife's certified fisheries were not directly disrupted by Morocco, but demand rose several-fold, forcing costly air freight and exposing supply constraints.

Climate Drives Scarcity

The guest says Morocco's 46% catch decline is more plausibly linked to warming waters, migration, food-web changes, and plankton quality than overfishing alone.

Fishery Recovery Rules

Milstein argues that closures and catch limits can be responsible management, allowing depleted fisheries to recover and regain sustainability within three to five years.