When Will Interest Rates Drop?
Benjamin Cowen examines whether rising Treasury yields are nearing a local peak, comparing the current move with yield patterns during the 2018 and 2022 midterm years. He concludes that rates could rise further in the near term, but he expects a local top around late October or early November and a decline beginning around mid-November, while emphasizing that the timing is uncertain.
Preview · 2 more points in the app
Read the Full SummaryKey Points
Cowen expects the current rise in the 10-year yield to top before mid-November, based partly on patterns he sees in the prior two midterm years, while acknowledging that the timing could be later.
Cowen says the market's perceived probability of an October rate hike fell from 64% a week earlier to 17.7%, and he argues that uncertainty about the Fed's response is one reason the 10-year yield has surged.
He expects rates to start falling around mid-November, shortly after the midterms, but says the timing and exact level of the peak remain uncertain.
Treasury Yield Outlook
The host says the 10-year yield has exceeded 5% and expects the current rise to reach a local top by early to mid-November, though the timing is uncertain.
Midterm Yield Patterns
Comparisons with 2018 and 2022 show yields topping in October or November before declining, offering a historical basis for the host’s expected timing.
Fed Rate Expectations
The host links rising Treasury yields to changing rate-hike expectations and argues that bond-market concern may peak around the next Fed meeting.
Rates Turning Lower
The host expects rates could rise further in the near term but forecasts a local top around late October or early November and a decline beginning around mid-November.
Related Episodes
Important Disclaimers
Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.
AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.
No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.
Our Commentary · Request Removal