This Model Called Ethereum’s Direction Most of the Time
The host presents a model for assessing Ethereum’s network demand by measuring fee activity per ETH against the network’s own recent baseline, rather than converting fees into dollars or comparing Ethereum with other assets. He concludes that the measure tracks changes in Ethereum’s economic activity and says the model called the direction of Ethereum’s price in 12 of 15 time windows.
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The host says the model keeps fees denominated in ETH to avoid introducing circularity by converting them into dollars at Ethereum’s current price.
The host’s model divides fees by the total ETH supply to calculate a measure he calls “flow intensity,” or fees per coin.
The host says the model uses the median of the prior 90 days as Ethereum’s normal activity baseline, because unusually high or low days can distort the mean.
Ethereum Flow Intensity
The speaker measures Ethereum network demand using fees per ETH, keeping fees denominated in ETH to avoid dollar-price circularity and comparing activity against Ethereum's own baseline.
Ethereum Activity Baseline
Flow intensity is framed as economic activity per coin, compared with a recent median baseline to show whether Ethereum's network is running hotter or colder than normal.
Ethereum Flow Regimes
The model visualizes deviations from normal activity and momentum as expansion, slowdown, contraction, and recovery, while treating the dollar conversion as a relative temperature check.
Ethereum Model Results
The speaker reports that the model called Ethereum's price direction over 45-day windows 76.4% of the time, correctly signaling 12 of 15 windows.
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