I Can't Believe It

The presenter’s shallow-bear-market view rests on Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown—short of the 65%–70% decline in 2022—and its move near the 200-week moving average. He identified the low $60,000s to high $50,000s as a potential bottom zone, citing the 2024 consolidation range and a price area that had acted as resistance in 2021.

The presenter viewed Bitcoin’s weekly close above its 50-week moving average as a bullish signal, and said ETFs took in $1.7 billion over the following two days. He also noted Bitcoin was up roughly 9% in September after a nearly 25% gain in August, while cautioning that September had not yet ended.

The presenter interpreted Bitcoin’s false breakdown, subsequent range breakout, and record short-liquidation event as signs that buyers were absorbing selling pressure and bears were losing control. Separately, he said nearly $300 million in liquidations followed a pullback from $86,000 to $84,000, as leveraged buyers who entered after the 50-week reclaim were forced out.

The presenter said Bitcoin treasury companies had been quiet in June, July, and August because raising money to buy Bitcoin without a market premium was difficult. He viewed Strategy’s roughly $6 billion in cash or cash equivalents against $6.7 billion of debt—and its ability to cover dividends for about four years—as a sound footing, while saying a return to trading at a premium could make Bitcoin purchases more likely.

The presenter viewed Strategy’s range reclaim and its price holding near resistance as signs that demand was emerging and bears were struggling to push it lower, but said its direction would depend on Bitcoin. He also expected substantial near-term volatility in both Bitcoin and Strategy as late buyers entered, even if those buyers could be right over a six-to-12-month horizon.